Obesity is a growing global problem with a huge price tag: Obesity and being overweight are serious challenges that cost the world tns of USD every year in treatment. Left unchecked, the economic consequences of obesity and being overweight could spiral from an estimated USD 2 tn in 2020 to over USD 3 tn by 2030 and an exorbitant USD 18 tn sum by 2060, according to a World Obesity Federation and RTI report (pdf). For Egypt — listed among the countries expected to be most severely impacted in the coming decades — the economic consequences are already at our doorstep.

The current healthcare costs of obesity in Egypt? Over EGP 60 bn a year. The cost of treating obesity-related health problems in Egypt was estimated at around EGP 62 bn by a Cairo University study published in 2021. Obesity aggravates pre-existing conditions and contributes to the onset of new diseases, making them more difficult and costly to treat. “Obesity is a major contributor to ill-health and health expenditure in Egypt. It is a risk factor of several diseases, of which some are very severe, like heart diseases and stroke,” the report said.

Obesity contributed to a fifth of deaths in 2020: Almost 20% of the total number of deaths in Egypt in 2020 (around 115k) have been linked to obesity, according to the report. Meanwhile, disability adjusted life years — a metric representing the loss of one year of full health — was said to have reached 4 mn in 2020.

The figures have been steadily rising: Between 2006 and 2019 the rate of adult obesity in Egypt rose to 40% from 30%, according to the 2021 study. By 2030, that figure could go up to some 41.6% and is expected to balloon to some 89% by 2060, according to the World Obesity Federation report (pdf).

Women are way more at risk: Currently some 50% of women in Egypt are considered obese, while among men, the obesity rate is estimated to be at some 30%. By 2030, the same variance will hold true as some 51.7% of women are expected to be considered obese compared to some 31.41% of men. The variation in these figures is likely due to cultural forces that have traditionally meant that “females in Egypt are less likely to be involved in physical activities compared to males,” the authors of the study argue.

And an uptick in obesity figures in 2020 has been linked to the pandemic: One study has argued that weight gain around the world in 2020 was partially attributable to lockdowns which caused a spike in stress-eating, higher rates of junk food consumption, less exercise, as well as an increase in anxiety which is linked to worse sleep — and less effective metabolic functioning.

A lack of access to healthier alternatives: Nutrient-deficient foods and difficulty accessing healthier alternatives compound the problem in Egypt, with some 45.4% of the Egyptian population unable to afford a nutrient-adequate diet and a whopping 84.8% unable to afford a healthy diet. Most Egyptian diets are high-calorie and contain nutrient-deficient foods, and it can serve as a driving force for obesity in the country.

The less obvious factors at play: A person’s genetic makeup and the abundance of chemicals in our natural environment — which disrupt normal metabolic processes — are also at fault. “The economic costs of overweight and obesity are not attributable to individual behavior but are a consequence of the social and commercial priorities that shape the ‘obesogenic’ environment now affecting every country in the world,” the World Obesity Federation report says.

There are big savings if we zero in on obesity: Scaling back the increased presence of obesity and overweight by 5% below projected levels could save some USD 430 bn worldwide every year between 2020-2060, the report says. Putting a halt to the rise of obesity outright would trigger annual savings of about USD 2.2 tn every year until 2060.

The policy suggestions are fairly straightforward: Placing restrictions on the marketing of food and drinks to children, taxing sugary beverages, requiring better nutritional labeling, and increased access to safe spaces for physical activity are some of the tools outlined in the report to help curb growing obesity rates. A bolder and perhaps more costly approach would be to integrate obesity treatment into universal health coverage around the world.