Bloomberg is the latest to predict a US recession, saying yesterday that it is "effectively certain" the economy will enter contraction over the next year after its model showed a 100% probability of recession by October 2023. This comes as the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively hike interest rates in a battle against rising inflation, a policy stance that some analysts say could force the economy into a deep downturn.

Overseas businesses backed in USD are hurting: North American companies suffered a staggering USD 34.3 bn in losses in 2Q 2022 due to the soaring USD, Bloomberg reports citing the treasury-management software company Kyriba Corp. This is the greatest amount of currency losses ever recorded by the firm, whose data go back to 2013. The greenback has surged to its highest level in 20 years this year as the Federal Reserve has raised rates, hurting multinationals’ overseas revenues.

3Q earnings could be even worse: The USD reached new highs during the July-September period, causing currency volatility to intensify. Economic slowdown overseas — another key headwind facing US firms — also continued, with the European energy crisis intensifying and the Chinese economy continuing to slow.

Saudi Arabia is offering to buy back USD 15.5 bn of its debt while mulling the sale of USD-denominated sukuk and bonds, Bloomberg reports, citing an unnamed source. Our friends at HSBC are quarterbacking the transaction as bookrunners and dealer managers, alongside BNP Paribas and Goldman Sachs.

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.2% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.25 bn (20.9% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 14.9% YTD.

In the green: Eastern Company (+3.6%), Housing and Development Bank (+2.9%) and e-Finance (+2.9%).

In the red: AMOC (-11.0%), Abu Qir Fertilizers (-7.2%) and Alexandria Container and Cargo Handling (-2.1%).