Global tourism has continued to rebound from its terrible start to the decade in this year despite the rising economic and geopolitical crises caused by the war in Ukraine, according to figures published this week by the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO). The number of international arrivals more than tripled during the first five months of the year, with almost 250 mn people traveling for overseas holidays against just 77 mn in the same period in 2021.

Putting this in perspective: Global tourism is still to fully recover from the impact of the covid-19 pandemic, two-and-a-half years after it began. Arrivals in the January-May period were less than half (46%) of levels in 2019 before the pandemic began.

Leading the recovery are Europe and Americas: Europe saw international arrivals more than quadruple during January-May 2022 thanks to growing regional demand and the lifting of covid-19 travel restrictions. Tourism numbers in the Americas more than doubled compared with the same period last year. Despite the pick-up in arrivals, figures remain well below pre-pandemic levels at 36% and 40%, respectively.

MENA + Africa tourism figures more than doubled: Similar to Europe and the Americas, MENA and Africa regions are also witnessing a growth in tourist arrivals, up 157% and 156% y-o-y, respectively. Again, both remain below 2019 levels.

Going forward: The UNWTO sees international arrivals climbing to between 55% and 70% of pre-pandemic levels this year, with arrivals depending on geopolitical and economic challenges, it said. “Results depend on evolving circumstances, mostly changing travel restrictions, ongoing inflation, including high energy prices, and overall economic conditions, the evolution of the war in Ukraine, as well as the health situation related to the pandemic,” it said. Disruptions caused by staff shortages, airports congestion and flight delays and cancellations could also have a negative impact on arrivals.

Europe and the Americas will consolidate their status further in top tourist-receiving countries this year, the UNWTO predicts. It sees tourist arrivals in Europe up to 65% or 80% of 2019 levels, with the Americas reaching 63% to 76% of pre-pandemic levels.

Africa, MENA get a share of optimism: International tourist arrivals in Africa and the Middle East could reach 50% to 70%, it said. The UN body isn’t very optimistic about Asia and the Pacific, saying that arrivals would remain at 30% of pre-pandemic levels as a best-case scenario due to harsher imposed policies and restrictions.