There’s a growing consensus that oil is only headed in one direction: Oil prices could rise beyond USD 150 a barrel in the coming months as sanctions on Russia’s oil exports roil the markets, the head of commodities trader Trafigura has warned. The energy markets have reached a “critical” state and oil could soon turn “parabolic” as the market undergoes its biggest reconfiguration in decades, Jeremy Weir said at a Financial Times conference. “I really think we have a problem for the next six months . . . once it gets to these parabolic states, markets can move and they can spike quite a lot.”

“Nowhere near the peak”: The UAE has warned that prices are “nowhere near” their peak as the loosening of covid restrictions in China threatens to pile further pressure on an already tight market, Bloomberg says. “With the pace of consumption we have, we are nowhere near the peak because China is not back yet,” Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said yesterday.

Let’s hope Jamie’s wrong: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said earlier this month that prices could reach as high as USD 175 a barrel this year, while Goldman is forecasting them to average USD 140 during the third quarter.

US equities could be headed for an earnings recession before the year is out, as Fed tightening takes a toll on margins at large-cap firms, writes Bloomberg markets strategist Simon White. Measures of CEO confidence at US firms have plummeted this year, suggesting trouble ahead for earnings growth as a strengthening USD hits global trade and costs soar on the back of high inflation. “Even if a full recession … is avoided, an earnings recession still means equities will find it hard to stage a sustainable rally,” White predicts.

US regulator eyes shake-up of trading rules to protect retail investors: Meanwhile, US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) head Gary Gensler has proposed an overhaul of US stock-trading rules, Reuters reports. The proposed changes, which come a year after the meme-stock frenzy, include creating an “open and transparent” auction mechanism for firms to execute trades from retail investors, part of efforts to boost competition. “I asked staff to take a holistic, crossmarket view of how we could update our rules and drive greater efficiencies in our equity markets, particularly for retail investors,” Gensler said yesterday.

The wolves of Wall St are howling: The proposed plan was met with strong criticism by brokerages and trading firms, The Wall Street Journal writes, noting that executing retail trades is a lucrative business for a small handful of firms who have little incentive to support any changes to the current system.

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.9% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 902 mn (7.5% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 14.3% YTD.

In the green: Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+7.0%), Heliopolis Housing (+5.4%) and Fawry (+5.1%).

In the red: CIRA (-2.2%), e-Finance (-0.9%) and Egypt Kuwait Holding-EGP (-0.1%).