THIS MORNING: Enjoy the long weekend — we’ll be back next Tuesday
Good morning, friends, and welcome to a brisk news day.
PSA #1- Hello, four-day weekend: The Central Bank of Egypt confirmed (pdf) yesterday that next Sunday, 24 April, will be a bank holiday in observance of Coptic Easter. Add that to the national holiday on Monday for Sinai Liberation Day and Sham El Nessim and we have ourselves a nice four-day weekend.
The private sector won’t be taking the entire week off for Eid, unlike the public sector. The private sector will officially get Labor Day (that’s 1 May) and the first two days of Eid as paid vacation days, the Manpower Ministry said yesterday. Now it’s up to you (or your bosses) to decide if your company will bridge the entire week.
PSA #2- This is our last edition of EnterpriseAM this week. We’re taking a publication holiday tomorrow (we do this each year so we can gather as a team for iftar) in addition to the bank holiday on Sunday and Monday’s national day off. Look out this afternoon for EnterprisePM. Our AM and PM editions will be back in your inboxes at the appointed hour on Tuesday.
PSA #3- Today is the deadline to file your ESG report: EGX-listed companies and all non-bank financial services outfits regardless of listing status need to submit their first quarterly ESG questionnaire by the end of today. The regulator is making it mandatory for companies to publicly disclose their performance on key environmental, social and governance metrics each year when they submit their annual financial statements, starting 2023.
SO, WHEN DO WE EAT? You’ll be breaking your fast at 6:25pm CLT this evening in the capital city, and fajr prayers are at 3:51am.
The Madbouly gov’t has formed a committee “to study the file of foreign borrowing and restrict it to very narrow limits,” after MPs voiced concern over the rise in the external debt during a House plenary session, Ahram Online reports. Planning Minister Hala El Said is heading up the committee. Our external debt balance rose nearly 6% q-o-q to c. USD 145.5 bn at the end of the second quarter of the current fiscal year, the domestic press reports, citing what it says is central bank data. Masrawy and Hapi Journal have the story.
ALSO- MPs yesterday gave final approval to part of the FY 2021-2022 budget, Ahram Online reports.
DATA POINT- 18% CDs are still being snapped up: Investors have now poured some EGP 577 bn into 18% CDs at Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt. Nearly 70% went to the NBE (here), while the remainder went to Banque Misr (here), Hapi Journal and Al Mal reported. The CDs launched last month, following the central bank’s 100-bps interest rate hike.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD– Other than a dire quarterly report from Netflix that could mark the beginning of the end of the streamer’s golden age (see more in our Planet Finance section, below), the war in Ukraine is still topping the front pages. Here’s what you need to know this morning:
- The UN has called for a four-day humanitarian ceasefire over Coptic Easter. (Statement)
- The US and allies are looking to impose more sanctions on Russia and provide Ukraine with more aid. (Statement)
- Russian troops are advancing at pace in eastern Ukraine, as part of a renewed offensive that Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called a “second phase” of the war. (Bloomberg)
- Russia to go to courts to recover frozen reserves… Russia’s central bank announced it plans to pursue lawsuits to recover USD 300 bn of its FX reserves that have been frozen by western governments. (Financial Times).
- …and bans stock listings on foreign exchanges in fresh blow to businesses: President Vladimir Putin signed off on legal amendments that require Russian companies to delist their overseas shares. (Bloomberg).
WATCH THIS SPACE- By the time we come back from the long weekend, France will have a new president. Incumbent Emmanuel Macron’s polling lead is widening against his far-right National Rally opponent Marine Le Pen, but the result of Sunday’s final runoff vote is far from certain, Reuters reports.
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MARKET WATCH-
Inflation-adjusted yields on US 10-year bonds are inching closer to positive territory on the back of the Federal Reserve’s tightening monetary policy for the first time since March 2020, the Financial Times reports. Real yields have surged more than 1 percentage point since early March, posting a high of minus 0.04% on Tuesday, a trend which if it continues could start causing real issues for equities, risky debt, and emerging markets.
Uh, Enterprise? How is this the case if inflation is at 8.5% and the 10-year yield is less than 3%? The Financial Times is using a version of real yields derived from Treasury inflation-protected securities (Tips). Rather than using the current rate of inflation, Tips reflect the average inflation expectation over the total term of the bond. The market currently expects inflation to average around 2.95% over the next 10 years, close to where the 10-year yield is now trading.
*** It’s Hardhat day — your weekly briefing of all things infrastructure in Egypt: Enterprise’s industry vertical focuses each Wednesday on infrastructure, covering everything from energy, water, transportation, and urban development, as well as social infrastructure such as health and education.
In today’s issue: What the Russia-Ukraine war means for Egypt’s trade: The war has caused already-inflated shipping and fuel prices to soar, even more disruption to supply chains, and a shortage of available shipping containers. Egypt has been scrambling to ensure that its trade activities remain stable by finding alternative markets and routes for our commodities needs. We talked to shipping industry players to find out what problems we’re now facing, what issues could arise next, and whether there are any silver linings amidst the instability.