US looks to move ahead with Russia oil ban, undeterred by commodities chaos: US lawmakers from both sides of the aisle are backing a plan to ban imports of Russian oil and sever trade relations with the country, Reuters reports. The framework was authored by Republican and Democratic lawmakers who sit on trade committees in the House and Senate, and could be put up for a vote in the House as soon as Tuesday, a congressional aide told the newswire.

Some European countries aren’t on board with an embargo on Russian energy, but two sources told Reuters that Washington is happy to go it alone and ban Russian oil from its shores. US officials have been in talks with European leaders over a joint ban but European nations are split over whether to sanction Russian oil and gas. Germany yesterday publicly opposed the idea while other nations such as Poland are calling for action, Bloomberg reports.

But it does want to slash imports this year: The bloc wants to cut up to two-thirds of its energy imports from Russia, the EU Commission said yesterday. This seems like a tall order given the continent relies on Russia for 40% of its gas, but a realignment of the continent’s energy strategy could open a space for producers such as Egypt to increase exports.

Russia threatens to suspend key gas pipeline to Europe: The Russian deputy prime minister threatened to cut off gas supplies to Europe delivered through the Nordstream 1 pipeline if Western governments move to reduce purchases from Russia, according to Reuters. Alexander Novak, who also handles energy policy, said that a restriction of Russian supplies could push oil prices to USD 300 a barrel, and warned that Moscow could respond to energy sanctions by shuttering the pipeline.

TALKS HAVE BROKEN DOWN-

A third round of direct talks between the two sides failed to produce a breakthrough yesterday after Ukraine rejected Moscow’s demands, the Washington Post reports. The Kremlin said yesterday that it will stop the bombardment “in a moment” if Ukraine accedes to its demands. Moscow wants Kyiv to enshrine neutrality in its constitution, recognize Crimea as Russian territory, and allow the breakaway states in the east of the country to become independent, spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, according to Reuters.

Small signs of progress: Negotiators brokered an agreement to establish humanitarian corridors to allow civilians to escape the fighting, and Russia’s UN ambassador announced that it will abide by a ceasefire starting 10am Moscow time, according to the Associated Press.

ON THE GROUND-

Rockets continue to be fired on the north and south of the country, disrupting plans to evacuate civilians via humanitarian corridors, the Wall Street Journal reports. More than 200k citizens in the southeastern city of Mariupo are at grave risk, Human Rights Watch said, and have not had access to running water, electricity, or heat since 2 March, when Russian forces began to besiege the city. Three evacuation attempts were canceled since then due to continued attacks.

Meanwhile outside Kyiv, Russian troops are preparing to seize the capital from the east and west in an operation Institute for the Study of War believes will start in the next few days.

THE HUMAN TOLL- Around 1.7 mn Ukrainians have fled their country so far, according to the UN refugee agency. This is the biggest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.

PLANET WAR FINANCE-

There’s now an 80% chance that Russia will default on its debt, after credit default swaps on Russian bonds rose to record highs yesterday, Bloomberg reported yesterday, citing ICE Data Services. Ratings agencies Moody’s, Fitch and S&P have all slashed the country’s sovereign rating to “junk” status, after the US imposed sanctions on Russian sovereign debt and its central bank, and banned some of its banks from the SWIFT payments system.

Russia is officially the most sanctioned country on Earth, taking the ignominious prize out of the hands of countries like Iran and North Korea. The country has been slapped with almost 2.8k new sanctions since 22 February, taking the total to more than 5.5k, according to Bloomberg.

EXODUS-

Fitch has become the second western credit rating agency to suspend its operations in Russia, according to Reuters. The firm said that its activities in the country would cease with immediate effect and that its analysts would cover the country from abroad. Moody’s was the first major rating agency to leave the country, announcing an end to its operations at the weekend.