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Tuesday, 1 March 2022

War in Ukraine is like a BRIC to the face for foreign investors

LIKE A BRIC TO THE FACE FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS- Like Big Oil, the Grand Wizzards of High Finance are scrambling to figure out what to do with their massive exposure to Russia. Foreign fund managers hold at least USD 150 bn in Russian stocks and bonds and are “scrambling to find ways to execute trades after western sanctions froze the country out of the global financial system.” Some USD 86 bn of that figure is in equities, and the Moscow stock exchange was closed yesterday.

The Moscow Exchange was closed yesterday — and may be again today. Russia’s central bank said yesterday that it would announce tomorrow morning at 9am Moscow time when the next trading session would take place. Better still: The FT reports that the central bank yesterday “banned overseas institutions from selling local securities on the Moscow Exchange.”

And even if the exchange opens, how will fund managers get money out when Russia is unplugged from the Swift interbank messaging system?

And it’s looking tough to dump foreign-listed Russian companies: Some exchanges are following the lead of Deutsche Börse and suspending trading in top Russian names including Aeroflot, Rosneft and Sberbank. And compliance departments are telling traders not to buy the (dip? crash?) as London-listed Russian securities crash in price, the FT noted. Doing otherwise might run them afoul of sanctions.

It’s a USD 10 bn problem for Citi, while Goldman could take a hit in the USD 650 mn neighborhood. The two are the US banks most-exposed to Russia, the FT suggests.

Is Total Energies next to head for the exits, following in the footsteps of BP, Shell and Equinor? The company wouldn’t return a call from the Wall Street Journal yesterday, and the Financial Times notes that pressure is ramping up on ExxonMobil, Glencore and Trafigura to do the same.

Others are following suit: HSBC and AerCap — the world's largest aircraft leasing firm — joined a growing list of multinational companies now looking to exit relationships in Russia due to the sanctions.

Russian energy companies have so far been spared the Western sanctions due to their importance in global energy markets and countries fearing for their own supplies — providing a financial cushion for Putin, the Wall Street Journal reports.

Oh, and forget about sidestepping sanctions by using crypto: The US Treasury Department is warning crypto exchanges to make sure sanctions-busters don’t use their infrastructure to get money out of Russia, according to Bloomberg. BTC surged by nearly 15% overnight to hit a near two-week high.

Down

EGX30

11,139

-0.3% (YTD: -6.8%)

None

USD (CBE)

Buy 15.66

Sell 15.76

None

USD at CIB

Buy 15.66

Sell 15.76

None

Interest rates CBE

8.25% deposit

9.25% lending

Up

Tadawul

12,590

+1.4% (YTD: +11.6%)

Up

ADX

9,319

+2.2% (YTD: +9.8%)

Up

DFM

3,355

+1.3% (YTD: +5.0%)

Down

S&P 500

4,374

-0.2% (YTD: -8.2%)

Down

FTSE 100

7,458

-0.4% (YTD: +1.0%)

Up

Brent crude

USD 100.99

+3.1%

Down

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.40

-0.1%

Up

Gold

USD 1,908

+0.4%

Up

BTC

USD 41,636

+11.2% (as of midnight)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.3% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 799 mn (20.8% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 6.8% YTD.

In the green: Fawry (+5.3%), Eastern Company (+2.9%) and e-Finance (+2.0%).

In the red: Orascom Development Egypt (-4.8%), Heliopolis Housing (-4.4%) and Palm Hills Development (-2.8%).

Asian markets are up almost across the board in early trading. It’s another story in Europe and the US, where futures suggest all the major indices will open in the red as the tumult in Ukraine continues to whipsaw global markets.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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