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Wednesday, 23 February 2022

Gov’t again ups 2021-2022 growth forecast

Egypt’s economy is expected to grow 6.2-6.5% in FY2021-2022, marking an upwards revision from the previously expected 6%, Planning Minister Hala El Said said yesterday, according to a statement. The economy grew 3.3% during FY2020-2021, according to official figures.

The upwards revision comes after 2Q2021-2022 growth exceeded expectations to record 8.3%, beating government forecasts of 6-7% for the quarter. The higher-than-expected growth during the second quarter of the fiscal year helped push 1H2021-2022 growth to 9%, Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly said earlier this month.

Strong growth in recent months has been pushing full-year estimates up: This is the third upwards revision the government has made to its initial 5.4% estimate in the draft budget for the current fiscal year.

The gov’t aren’t the only ones feeling increasingly optimistic: The IMF last month revised upwards its 2021-2022 forecast to 5.6%, while the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank — as well as a Reuters poll of economists — all made upgrades to their estimates last quarter, and are now predicting that the economy will grow 4.9-5.1% this year.

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