The sentiment for an accelerating global economic recovery is looking rather bleak, if the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Risks Report for 2022 (pdf) is anything to go by. The report — which outlines the 10 biggest threats the world faces in the years ahead — showed that officials and business leaders have little faith in an accelerating global recovery and the future of the world as a whole. The WEF’s perception survey found that 84% of respondents were concerned or worried about the outlook for the world while only 12% are positive and 4% are optimistic. The world is now in a “perfect storm” of economic and health crises coupled with the long-term looming threat of climate change, WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi explained to Bloomberg TV (watch, runtime: 05:42).

Climate-related risks make up half of the 10 biggest threats: Climate action failure tops the list of risks, followed by extreme weather, biodiversity loss, social cohesion erosion, livelihood crises, infectious diseases, human environmental damage, natural resource crises, debt crises, and geoeconomic confrontation.

Before we think of the disasters of the future, there’s a crisis currently at hand — the pandemic that keeps on giving: The spread of new variants and a rise in global case counts have pushed back the end of the pandemic and the uncertainty that accompanies it. Meanwhile, the issue of vaccine disparity continues to underline global inequality, with the poorest 52 countries only having a 6% vaccination rate. This unequal recovery from the pandemic will compound social fractures and geopolitical tensions at a time where the world needs to better cooperate to cope with issues of common interest.

Covid-19 has accelerated the timeline for the anticipated breakdown of social cohesion: Social cohesion erosion is the risk that has worsened the most globally since the start of the pandemic, according to the report. It is a critical threat that spans the short, medium, and long terms through economic, political, technological, and intergenerational inequality. Protests and unrest were rampant during the past two years as these inequalities were brought to light during the pandemic, with the World Bank estimating that the richest 20% of the world’s population will have recovered half their losses in 2021 while the poorest 20% will have lost 5% more of their income. It will take the global economy at least until 2023 to create the jobs lost to the pandemic, but even then, many of these jobs are expected to be of low productivity and poor quality, according to the International Labour Organization. These income disparities risk further increasing polarization and resentment within societies, the report writes.

The result? Less financial and political capital available for stronger climate action: The Earth’s climate is the most pressing long-term existential threat, especially in the next five to 10 years, the report says. However, with so much allocation going towards ending the pandemic and settling local and regional unrest, climate action might be put on the back burner. Post-covid recovery favors short-term stability over the green transition while loose monetary policies further distort green, market-based solutions or investments, the report writes.

And promises made aren’t necessarily promises kept: The report alludes to the pledges made during COP26 where governments vowed to take important steps to avoid global warming rising above the disastrous 1.5°C scenario. However, as the United Nations Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report 2021 (pdf) shows, reaching the 1.5°C target remains unlikely. Instead, the current trajectory is expected to steer the world towards a 2.4°C warming, with only the most optimistic of scenarios holding it to 1.8°C.

The cost of complete climate inaction is steep: Not taking a bolder and faster approach towards climate change in the coming years, could lead to a “too little, too late” situation and ultimately a “hot house world scenario” with runaway climate change that makes the world all but uninhabitable, the report writes. If the world fails to achieve the net zero emissions goal by 2050, financial losses are projected to be between 4% and 18% of global GDP with different impacts across regions — not to mention the loss of lives and livelihoods.

Meanwhile, the pandemic also increased digital dependence, which intensified cybersecurity threats: Cyber vulnerabilities was a key risk the report brought up, with a 358% increase in malware and a 435% increase in ransomware in 2020 alone, as more people joined the “ransomware as a service” industry, the report states. Meanwhile, there has also been growth in deepfakes and “disinformation-for-hire” services which can do everything from sway an election to deepening mistrust between societies, business, and government. On a corporate level, cybersecurity threats have increased costs for businesses as cyber crime has forced companies to pay up to bns to unlock data, systems, or stop their attacks. Even for those who err on the side of caution, cyber ins. rates have soared, going up 204% y-o-y in the US in 3Q2021.

Migration and space exploration were also brought to the table as major risks the world faces: Economic hardship, worsening impacts of climate change and political persecution will force mns to leave their homes in search of a better future in the coming years, the report writes. Yet in many countries, lingering effects of the pandemic, increased economic protectionism and new labor market dynamics are resulting in higher barriers to entry for migrants who might seek refuge. Meanwhile, outer space could be another geopolitical battleground as an increase in private and public activity crowds out the developing world and gives even more advantage to rich countries.