OUR ANALYST OF THE WEEK– Ahmed Abbady, senior investment analyst at Misr Capital’s asset management unit (Linkedin).

My name is Ahmed Abbady and I’m a senior investment analyst at Misr Capital’s asset management unit. I participate in selecting stocks and providing the necessary support to make investment decisions. I started my career as a sell-side analyst at Jazira Capital, where I covered building materials and consumers for three years, then moved to Misr Capital in 2018. From my experience, working as a buy-side financial analyst is very similar to the sell-side — they both use the same analytic tools. I love numbers and believe in their honesty in relaying information; this was exemplified for me when I got my CFA.

The best part of working in asset management is the exposure to many sectors. Curiosity is my chronic disease and research and analysis is my recovery [laughs]. Every day, I like to read and learn something new. The job forces you to get to know most industries in depth, and in the end you have the understanding to hold a conversation in investments, stocks, or asset allocation.

I focus on fertilizers, building materials, healthcare, pharma, and real estate. I think healthcare, pharma, and real estate have been oversold in the past period amid the uncertainty of the pandemic and new regulations and they might need more time than 2022 to recover. A lot of people began avoiding hospitals and medical services because they were afraid of getting infected with the virus, and this was a hit to the companies’ volumes, and in turn, their stocks. Meanwhile, fertilizers are booming, but could slow down in the coming period. As for building materials and construction, it all depends on commodity prices and how they move this year.

The worst thing about my job is the stress. You have to be as accurate as possible in the shortest time possible. Time is of the essence in the field and if anything happens locally or globally, you have to interrupt your plans and get the work done.

We’re currently employing a hybrid system at work. We spend two weeks at home and two weeks in the office. I don’t enjoy WFH because I feel that all days start to feel the same — but it really made me appreciate my wife and all her efforts to take care of me, our home, and our infant son Mazen.

Regarding my job, the uncertainty from the pandemic has made markets more sensitive. Any news related to covid-19 or new variants have a very visible global reaction both here and abroad. However, the vaccination rollouts are progressing well and I hope that we recover from the pandemic very soon.

The secret sauce for investment, in my opinion, is to perfect the methodology of selection and the timing of execution. The methodology of selection involves looking at a stock with a strong growth story, sustainable quality, good governance, and a potential short term catalyst that can unlock the expected upside. As for timing, it’s important to note the average cost of a stock and aim to buy when it’s around that level. Investors should avoid buying a stock when prices are on an upward trend or selling when stock performance is down.

The most important factor I look at before making a recommendation is management. Your forecast and assumptions on a company are based on how credible management was in the past and how much they succeeded in delivering on their guidance. I’ve also learned during my time in asset management that investors focus on stock liquidity when looking at emerging markets, so that’s also something I factor in.

It’s a bit too early to forecast the performance of the EGX in 2022, but the year seems promising. The bourse has been performing well for over 30 weeks now, we saw a recovery in many sectors in 2021, and Egypt’s vaccine drive is moving forward steadily. However, inflation and higher interest rates are the main challenges that could affect us in 2022. All indicators say that local inflation will increase in 1H2022, in line with the global trend.

Being a new father, the day becomes too busy to watch anything without interruption. However, some movies are close to my heart such as 3 Idiots, The Green Mile, and Escape Plan. I’m also a huge fan of classical Arabic films. I find them a perfect mix of comedy and romance. A few names off the top of my head are Ibn Hamido, A’elit Zizi, and Esha3et 7ob.

In my downtime, I like to repair my house [laughs]. I know it’s a bit weird, but I take fixing any damage as a challenge and YouTube is a great mentor. Sometimes I’m successful at repairing things myself, but a lot of the time, I make the situation much worse [laughs] — that’s when I finally decide to call a specialist. However, the best time I spend during my day is playing with my son. We love to play hide and seek and he always gets so excited when he finds us. I also enjoy going out with family and friends, especially on the weekends.

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MARKET ROUNDUP-

The EGX30 rose 0.7% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 1.09 bn (14.7% below the 90-day average). Regional investors were net buyers. The index is up 0.3% YTD.

In the green: Egypt Kuwait Holding (+7.4%), AMOC (+6.4%) and Raya Holding (+5.9%).

In the red: Cleopatra Hospital (-1.4%), Ezz Steel (-1.4%) and Orascom Development Egypt (-0.9%).