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Tuesday, 23 November 2021

THIS MORNING: Powell stays on for second term as Fed chair; Schools closed in Alex again; Abiy Ahmed marches into battle.

Good morning, everyone, and happy hump day. It’s a great day for capital markets after the FRA gave its long-awaited blessing to the UAE’s Aldar and ADQ to go ahead with their bid to acquire upmarket developer SODIC. Also a must-read this morning is our Going Green piece on the future of Egypt’s plans to roll out electric vehicles nationwide after the breakup with China’s Dongfeng — see it as a chance to bring in a more compelling partner. Oh, and did we mention your next iPhone is going to cost a bit more?

Further afield: The leader of Ethiopia says he’s literally going to the front lines to take on rebels who are advancing on his capital — and Elon Musk has fired a broadside at JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon … likely from his toilet.

All of this and more below.

PSA: School’s off again in Alexandria. Alexandria has given public and private schools the day off today and has told non-essential public sector workers to stay home as authorities work to clear the streets following the deluge of rain yesterday. We have more in Last Night’s Talk Shows, below.

THE BIG STORY IN THE GLOBAL BUSINESS PRESS- Jay Powell looks set to stay on at the helm of the Federal Reserve for another four years after President Joe Biden opted for continuity and nominated him for a second term yesterday. Lael Brainard, Powell’s main rival for the top spot at the central bank, has been appointed vice-chair and will replace Richard Clarida when the new term starts in February.

A safer pair of hands? The decision to stick with Powell sends a message to the market that a) the Biden administration recognizes the importance of policy continuity in uncertain times and b) the world’s most powerful central bank will remain unafraid to confront inflation and tighten policy if necessary. Powell has overseen a historic monetary policy response to the pandemic and guided the economy through one of the swiftest and deepest recessions on record. He was the market’s preferred candidate to steer the ship as inflation reaches multi-decade highs and supply chain snarls show no sign of ending. Under his leadership, the central bank has begun to do just that, reducing its huge asset-purchase programme this month and signalling that more could be done if the problems persist.

The new vice-chair: Brainard, the pick of liberals and progressives in the Democratic Party, is to the left of Powell on issues including regulation and climate change, and though she talked of the importance of reining in inflation, market sentiment had her as a dove: more tolerant of higher inflation and more hesitant to dial back monetary stimulus.

There was a positive reception from the markets, with US stocks rising following the announcement and Wall Street execs praising the decision. “Of course everybody was relieved,” bn’aire hedge fund manager Marc Lasry said. “The markets believe that he will do what is necessary to keep the markets calm and have them move forward.”

But there was still time for a late-day reversal: While US stocks rose initially after the announcement, indexes turned negative in the final hour of trading and bonds sold off. The Nasdaq fell more than 1% while the S&P 500 dropped 0.3%. The yield on 10-year treasuries climbed seven basis points and the greenback strengthened.

The story is everywhere this morning: Bloomberg | FT | Reuters | CNBC | Washington Post | New York Times.

MEANWHILE- The 2019 Nobel Prize winner is going full Braveheart: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is apparently heading to the battlefront, pledging yesterday to lead his troops into battle against Tigray rebels that have in recent weeks advanced closer to the nation’s capital and threatened to plunge the country into all-out civil war. “Starting tomorrow, I will mobilize to the front to lead the defence forces,” he wrote in a statement on social media. “This is a time when leading a country with martyrdom is needed.”

Ethiopian government forces have been fighting a year-long war against rebels in the Tigray region, which has sharply escalated in recent weeks. The government declared a six-month state of emergency earlier this month and urged people living in the capital to arm themselves and protect their neighborhoods. “This is so extraordinary and unprecedented, shows how desperate the situation is,” Awol Allo — the man who nominated Ahmed for the Nobel prize — wrote in a tweet. (AFP | Washington Post | The Guardian)

SIGN OF THE TIMES #1- The SAT — and standardized testing in general — just got dealt another body blow, as the University of California said that they would not look at any alternative “standardized test” to help it make admission decisions. No other exam “would avoid the biased results” that led the school to dump the SAT last year. The UofC system’s adoption of the SAT a half-century ago helped turn it into a “must-take” for generations of kids seeking college admission in the US. The Los Angeles Times has the story.

SIGN OF THE TIMES #2- Elon Musk is literally threatening to give JPMorgan a one-star review on Yelp as his feud with JPM boss Jamie Dimon continues. The edge lord — who said overnight that he tweets at least 50% of the time from his “porcelain throne” — made the threat in an exclusive with the Wall Street Journal.

MORNING MUST-READ- Where did all the workers go? in the Financial Times, wherein the salmon-coloured paper looks at how immigration, retirement and poor pay and working conditions are reshaping the labor market around the world. It’s the first in a series and worth keeping an eye on.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY-

BOOK LAUNCH- Up and Doing, a memoir penned by Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund Chairman James Harmon (Morning Routine), will be published today. The memoir recounts Harmon’s career as a banker and discusses “how markets can move the world forward by creating stable, growing economies and sound [transactions] that promote economic development.”

The new administrative capital plays host to a Comesa summit today, while ITIDA and the Software Engineering Competence Center are hosting a webinar on fintech in Egypt.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The Home Appliances and Table Show (HATS Egypt) kicked off yesterday and wraps up on Wednesday. The event is organized by the Engineering Export Council of Egypt and brings together companies working in the home appliances sector.

Startup gathering RiseUp starts on Thursday and runs through Saturday.

The Cairo International Film Festival kicks off its weeklong run this coming Friday.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

enterprise

*** It’s Going Green day — your weekly briefing of all things green in Egypt: Enterprise’s green economy vertical focuses each Tuesday on the business of renewable energy and sustainable practices in Egypt, everything from solar and wind energy through to water, waste management, sustainable building practices and how you can make your business greener, whatever the sector.

In today’s issue: Egypt’s plans to locally assemble electric vehicles are moving forward, despite the recent breakdown in negotiations between state-owned El Nasr Automotive and China’s Dongfeng — which had previously agreed to partner to assemble Dongfeng’s E70 vehicles here in Egypt. Today, El Nasr Managing Director Hany El Kholy talks to Enterprise about why the talks fell through.

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