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Monday, 1 November 2021

Inflation in emerging-markets smashes expectations

Inflationary pressures are building in emerging markets: Inflation in emerging markets has surpassed expectations by the most since 2008 as the effects of rising commodity prices and covid stimulus measures continue to be felt, according to Bloomberg.

And investors are repaying countries that are taking action: Nations that have tried to keep inflation at bay by hiking interest rates have seen larger currency gains and stronger performance of longer-term bonds. Russia has aggressively tightened policy this year, delivering six rate hikes. In response, investors have lapped up 10-year bonds, with yields falling below shorter-term bills, while the ruble saw its strongest monthly gain in October in almost a year. Meanwhile, South Korean’s KRW beat most EM currencies this month and long-term bonds are outperforming shorter-term securities after the central bank hiked rates in August.

At the opposite end of the spectrum: Turkey’s TRY and Brazil’s BRL performed the worst in October as investors punished governments for policies that could further intensify inflation in the months ahead. Despite the Brazilian central bank sharply tightening rates to counteract inflation, bondholders are punishing the government’s plans for more public spending. The TRY has fallen to record lows after the country’s central bank’s two rate cuts since September.

Manufacturing activity in the world’s second-largest economy is continuing to contract: Chinese manufacturing activity contracted for the second straight month in September as electricity shortages and the unravelling of the country’s property sector hit industrial firms. The manufacturing PMI index came in at 49.2 in October, down from 49.6 in September, suggesting that the slowdown in the country’s industrial sector continued last month. The Financial Times has more.

Surveillance capitalists are losing bns of USD thanks to Apple’s iPhone privacy changes: Social media giants Facebook, Snap, Twitter and YouTube have lost almost USD 10 bn in ad revenues in the second half of 2021 after Apple introduced new privacy safeguards on the iPhone earlier this year, the FT reports. The company’s App Tracking Transparency policy blocks apps from monitoring user behaviour and sending personalized ads unless they first ask for permission.

People evidently don’t like their data being harvested: The majority of users have refused to allow apps to access their data since Apple introduced the policy, leaving advertisers unable to target them with marketing and causing them to scale back their ad spending at Facebook, Snap, Twitter and YouTube.

Down

EGX30

11420

-0.8% (YTD: +5.3%)

None

USD (CBE)

Buy 15.66

Sell 15.76

None

USD at CIB

Buy 15.66

Sell 15.76

None

Interest rates CBE

8.25% deposit

9.25% lending

Down

Tadawul

11,704

-0.5% (YTD: +34.7%)

Down

ADX

7,865

-0.09% (YTD: +55.9%)

Up

DFM

2,864

+0.1% (YTD: +14.9%)

Up

S&P 500

4,605

+0.2% (YTD: +22.6%)

Down

FTSE 100

7,238

-0.2% (YTD: +12.0%)

Up

Brent crude

USD 83.72

+0.07%

Down

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 5.43

-6.2%

Down

Gold

USD 1,784

-1.0%

Down

BTC

USD 61,460

-0.2% (as of midnight)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.8% yesterday on turnover of EGP 1.18 bn (22.9% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 5.3% YTD.

In the green: Raya Holding (+10.3%), Aspire Capital (+6.3%) and Speed Medical (+4.2%).

In the red: Ezz Steel (-11.8%), Abou Kir Fertilizers (-6.1%) and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (-5.5%).

Asian markets are mainly in the green in early trading this morning, and shares in Europe and the US will likely follow them when markets open later this morning, according to stock futures.

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