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Sunday, 21 February 2021

What the markets are doing on 21 February 2021

Climate change mitigation is the only factor that can drive the so-called commodities supercycle. This is the takeaway from an op-ed by CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen for the Financial Times who casts doubt that the recent “panglossian” optimism over vaccines will bring us a new commodities boom, and warns those who are banking on huge new demand from China about Beijing’s its new dual circulation strategy, which will lessen its dependence on commodity imports.

Too early to call a supercycle? Huge demand for copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt and other materials necessary to produce low-carbon technology could be created, but only when policymakers act decisively. “Climate action is the only factor that has the potential to drive a multiyear commodity price rally. But a lot must be said and done before that materializes. It is too early to call a supercycle,” she writes.

Inflation is on the increase in the US and this isn’t great for emerging markets. The pickup has translated into higher treasury yields, meaning it could drive investors away from EMs and diminish the rally in EM asset classes as risky holdings become less attractive, according to Bloomberg. Investors are pricing in Biden’s USD 1.9 tn stimulus plan, driving the benchmark 10-year yields to their highest level in a year. This could also mean a quick repricing in EM bonds, said Sid Mathur, head of Asia Pacific research at BNP Paribas.

Down

EGX30

11,381

-0.3% (YTD: +4.9%)

Up

USD (CBE)

Buy 15.61

Sell 15.71

Up

USD at CIB

Buy 15.60

Sell 15.70

None

Interest rates CBE

8.25% deposit

9.25% lending

Down

Tadawul

9,024

-0.7% (YTD: +3.9%)

Up

ADX

5,643

+0.1% (YTD: +11.8%)

Down

DFM

2,576

-0.7% (YTD: +3.4%)

Down

S&P 500

3,907

-0.2% (YTD: +4.0%)

Up

FTSE 100

6,624

+0.1% (YTD: +2.5%)

Down

Brent crude

USD 62.91

-1.6%

Down

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.07

-0.4%

Up

Gold

USD 1,777.40

+0.1%

Up

BTC

USD 56,579.03

+0.9%

The EGX30 fell 0.3% on Thursday on turnover of EGP 1.3 bn (9.8% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 4.9% year-to-date.

In the green: Orascom Investment Holding (+4.3%), Abou Kir Fertilizers (+3.3%) and Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+3.2%).

In the red: Orascom Financial Holding (-6.2%), Palm Hills Development (-3.2%) and ElSewedy Electric (-2.7%).

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