GDP to return to pre-pandemic levels next year -Citi: Egypt’s economy is expected to grow by 4.6% in FY2020-2021 and 5.4% the following year, according to a Citibank report picked up by the local press. It said it expects tourism to continue rebounding in 1H2021 and offset some of the economic damage wrought by the pandemic, coupled with a recovery in Suez Canal revenues amid an expected rise in global oil prices. The bank is keeping an eye on the extent to which the government will push for growth, especially with the planned privatization program. Maintaining an inflation rate between 6-12% was initially not difficult after the EGP float, even after the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) kicked off its monetary easing cycle. However, inflation has become more of a challenge as the CBE looks to keep it above the lower band of 6%, suggesting the central bank’s main policy priority moving forward will be inflation.

Gov’t estimate more conservative: The government said last month that it expects the economy to grow at a 3.5-3.8% clip in the current fiscal year, a higher forecast than the 2.8-3.5% clip forecast by the Finance Ministry earlier that month. Analysts have agreed: The IMF, Fitch, and Deutsche Bank have all predicted GDP to come in at 3.5% this year.