Where does the global economy go from here? The OECD is out with two scenarios, and neither is particularly good. The global economy is on course to contract by 6% this year but if a second wave hits before the end of the year activity will tank even further, falling by 7.6%, the OECD said in its latest Economic Outlook. Unemployment in OECD countries is currently on track to rise to 9.2% before the end of the year, but in the second scenario the jobless count will double to 10%. The numbers are far worse than those put out in April by the IMF, which forecast global growth to contract by 3% this year.

No good options: Whatever trajectory the virus takes from here, it’s going to take a long time for the global economy to properly find its feet and living standards to return to pre-pandemic levels. While the OECD expects a rapid bounce-back in growth in early 2021, it doesn’t believe this will be sustained, with economic activity in OECD countries slipping back through the rest of the year. “Most people see a V-shaped recovery, but we think it’s going to stop halfway” the Financial Times quoted OECD chief economist, Laurence Boone, as saying. “By the end of 2021, the loss of income exceeds that of any previous recession over the last 100 years outside wartime, with dire and long-lasting consequences for people, firms and governments.”