The holiday news lull (such as it was this year) is officially over, as we have a packed issue for you this morning. The big stories are still on the international front (Libya, Ethiopia and Iran), but M&A news is back in the headlines and the CBE is shaping up to be the newsmaker of the week between the end of its subsidized loan program for midsized industries, the strengthening of the EGP and Thursday’s interest rate meeting.

It’s crunch time on GERD talks: Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia will begin what’s being billed as a final round of talks in Washington today in the hope of finally reaching an agreement on the filling timetable for the reservoir of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

There’s no sign (so far) that a breakthrough is imminent: The three Nile river countries pledged to end the years-long impasse by the 15 January, but neither Egypt nor Ethiopia has ceded any ground. Ethiopian PM Abiy Ahmed insiss his country will begin filling the reservoir in July; he says it will be done in 12 years, Egyptian officials want a 21-year period.

Ethiopia changing its tune on international mediation? Ahmed has called for South African President and incoming African Union head Cyril Ramaphosa to get involved in the dispute in the hope that he may force a resolution, according to the Associated Press. We’re reading that as a signal not to expect a breakthrough today.

Meanwhile, Libya enjoyed a quiet night as a ceasefire held (we have detailed coverage in this morning’s Speed Round, below) and Iran’s leaders faced a second night of protests following the government’s admission it shot down a Ukrainian airliner, killing all 176 people on board. The Iran story is making headlines globally. See: Bloomberg, the FT, BBC and CNN

EGP WATCH: The EGP continued to gain against the greenback yesterday following the Finance Ministry’s t-bill auction, rising to EGP 15.89 per USD from EGP 15.93 last week. At least one banker has attributed the bump to foreign inflows into EGP-denominated government bonds ahead of Thursday’s MPC meeting. Yesterday’s t-bill auction was more than 3x oversubscribed, as investors lodged EGP 51 bn in bids for EGP 14.5 bn in 3-month and 9-month treasuries.

Investors are starting off the year with a bright outlook for global growth in 2020. It’s a marked shift from sentiment last year, when concerns of a recession were triggered by higher interest rates and mounting tariffs, but the Federal Reserve rate cuts and the US-China trade agreement later in the year instead drove a market rally. The S&P 500 hasn’t recorded a 1% daily pullback in three months and was unperturbed by the escalating tensions between the US and Iran. The Wall Street Journal has more.

Asset managers are lining up to tap China’s USD 4.2 tn investment fund market ahead of the abolition of foreign ownership limits in April, says the Financial Times. This highly anticipated change, which China said last October will happen a year earlier than initially expected, will allow foreign investment houses to fully own a fund management company. They could then tap a vast retail investment market without the need for a local partner.

Vanguard assets surpass USD 6 tn benchmark for the first time following increased investor inflows from 2019. Despite more conservative investor sentiment in the wake of US stock market highs at the end of December 2019, the asset management giant has marked its third best performance on record, breaching USD 6 tn in managed assets, the FT reports.

This is part of the “great index fund takeover”, which Bloomberg says has resulted in the top three ETF providers (BlackRock, Vanguard and State Street) becoming “the most important players in corporate America.” With a combined USD 15.5 tn in assets under management, the concentration of shareholder power in the hands of just three funds is raising concern among regulators, lawmakers and activists alike.

Aramco IPO value hits new record: Saudi Aramco said yesterday that the size of its IPO had reached a record USD 29.4 bn after it exercised its “greenshoe option” allowing it to sell an additional 450 mn shares to satisfy investor demand, the Associated Press reports.

*** It’s Blackboard day: We have our weekly look at the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed. Blackboard appears every Monday in Enterprise in the place of our traditional industry news roundups.

In today’s issue: We look at how Egypt is building competence in artificial intelligence.

PSA- We’re getting a brief reprieve from the cold: Winter is taking a little breather this week through Thursday, with temperatures in Cairo expected to increase 5°C, according to the Egyptian Meteorological Authority (pdf). Look for a high of 20°C today rising to 24°C on Wednesday before the mercury settles in at 19°C or below for the foreseeable future.