Is global meat consumption set to peak, amid health and environmental concerns and sustainability issues? Meat consumption may have peaked globally, as increased strain on resources — including land and water — and growing health and environmental concerns will increasingly prompt consumers to eat less meat and seek alternative sources of protein, whether through choice or necessity, the Financial Times reports. Both the US and Europe are expected to hit a high point of meat consumption in 2020, which will then plateau over the next decade, OECD data suggests. Meanwhile, a report by consultants AT Kearney predicts a low global growth rate of around 3% per year in the coming decades, with meat from livestock becoming a niche product. This is likely to spur the growth of companies producing meat substitutes, including those made from plant proteins. The USD 1.2 tn livestock meat market is likely to change substantially, with investors increasingly aware of the business risks in the high carbon animal agriculture industry.

The impact on emerging markets, including Egypt, is likely to be felt more slowly than elsewhere, but some may embrace the new trend: Nutrition professor Barry Popkin predicts that it will take time before these changes are felt in EMs, where there is less of a narrative linking meat, health concerns, and climate change than in the US and Europe, and where eating meat is often seen as an indicator of affluence. Egypt’s beef consumption in 2020 is expected to reach 720k tonnes, up by 3.5% from the previous year, according to the US Embassy’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) annual report on livestock and products (pdf). This is being driven by population growth, the continued influx of refugees, and an increase in tourism. However, other EMs seem to be warming up to reduced meat intake, with products from alternative meat producer Beyond Meat now available at several restaurants in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. And while China, which accounts for almost a third of the total meat eaten globally, is still seeing a rising demand for meat, this growth is expected to slow before 2030, due to health concerns (including high obesity levels) and increased awareness of the link between diet and health, a 2018 OECD/FAO report says.