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Monday, 18 November 2019

What we’re tracking on 18 November 2019

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is in Berlin, having landed yesterday for the G20 Compact with Africa High-Level Conference, which kicks off tomorrow in the German capital, . El Sisi will represent the African Union during the event, which will also see Egypt’s Investment Ministry sign a EUR 154 mn loan to support renewable energy, water management, waste recycling, and technical education.

The president will hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel at some point this week (although we’re still not sure when): Libya is expected to feature heavily in the talks following a phone call between the two leaders over the weekend. Germany recently urged countries to end foreign interference in the war-torn country, a call that was partly aimed at Egypt, which has been funding Libyan General Khalifa Haftar’s eastern forces. Germany, meanwhile, supports the UN-backed government in Tripoli.

El Sisi to meet corporate leaders: The president will also sit down with representatives of major German companies to talk trade and investment.

Our friends at AmCham are hosting the US-Egypt Future Prosperity Forum today, with Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Global Markets Ian Steff, and several Egyptian ministers scheduled to speak. You can check out the full agenda here.

Aramco to seek USD 1.6-1.7 tn valuation, falling short of MbS’ initial goals: Saudi Aramco is seeking a valuation of USD 1.6-1.7 tn, a significant fall from the USD 2 tn Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman was originally looking for, the Wall Street Journal reports. The company will sell a 1.5% stake (around 3 bn shares) at between USD 8 and USD 8.52 per share, raising nearly USD 25 bn if priced at the midpoint. This would put Aramco — long expected to hold the world’s largest ever IPO — behind Alibaba which raised USD 25 bn in its 2014 offering. Despite being the world’s most profitable company and despite a big marketing push from the Saudi government, international investors haven’t exactly been rushing to grab a piece of the IPO as risks from government intervention and terrorist attacks continue to loom.

Saudi’s main stocks were largely unchanged at the end of trading yesterday, with the Tadawul closing 0.1% up despite climbing 0.4% earlier in the day, according to Bloomberg.


Don’t expect a rally in EM stocks anytime soon as volatility hits five-year lows: Emerging-market equities continue to underperform despite several months of interest rate cuts around the world and the so-called ‘golden cross’ appearing this month, Bloomberg says. And now that several major central banks have hinted that they will bring an end to the easing cycle, a bounce in EM stocks will be reliant on positive developments on US-China trade. Anders Faergemann, senior money manager at Pinebridge Investments, told the news information service that EMs are currently a “mixed bag,” but cited Egypt and Ukraine as particularly promising markets due to their reform efforts.

What is a golden cross? The golden cross occurs when an index’s short-term moving average rises above its long-term average. It is seen as a predictor of a bull market.

Share prices in developed markets are rising, so everything is rosy, right? Wrong, the Financial Times warns in an editorial. Listing a litany of problems facing the global economy, the FT says that the situation could get “substantially worse” in the months ahead despite the current optimism being displayed in rising share valuations.

*** It’s Blackboard day: Blackboard is the first of our ‘verticals’ — specialized editions that focus on individual industries. For Blackboard, that focus is the business of education in Egypt, from pre-K through the highest reaches of higher ed. Each edition of Blackboard will mix news, deep dives, analysis, raw data (plus context) and a touch of humor with the goal of making industry players think — and of getting non-experts up to speed. Our goal: To give you the inside track, whether you’re an investor or operator in the field or just passingly interested in the topic. Blackboard appears every Monday in Enterprise right after Egypt in the News in the place of our traditional industry news roundups.

Missed us last week? Catch our feature last Monday on the impact of the Education Ministry’s 20% cap on foreign ownership in private and international schools.

In today’s issue: Blackboard looks at why the demand from international schools for foreign teachers remains high, despite the impact on COGS of FX-denominated salaries in a challenging macroeconomic climate.

Day 2 of the Trump impeachment inquiry was even more dramatic than the first: The Donald was accused of intimidating a witness during the second day of the inquiry into his relationship with the Ukrainian government, after he tweeted at former ambassador to Ukraine, Marie Yovanovitch, as she was giving evidence against him.

Separately, national security aide Tim Morrison told investigators in private testimony that EU ambassador Gordon Sondland threatened to withhold military aid to Ukraine if it did not launch a corruption investigation into Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. Morrison claimed that the ambassador had discussed the matter directly with Trump. Both Morrison and Sondland will give testimony in public this week. The Financial Times and the Associated Press have more.

*** The inaugural season of our first podcast, Making It, launches on Friday. Making It is a weekly discussion with CEOs and founders who are building great businesses right here in Egypt. You’ll hear the origin story of hot startups, how family-owned businesses are institutionalizing, and the strategies publicly traded giants are using to transform themselves into the next generation of Egyptian multinationals. The goal: We want each season to be a masterclass on how visionary CEOs are building strategy, dealing with conflict, figuring out how to scale up, and staying ahead of the competition.

Season one of Making It launches on Friday, 22 November and will be available wherever you get your favourite shows, from Apple Podcasts to Google, Overcast and, outside of Egypt, on Spotify, too. You’ll also be able to listen from the new podcast tab on our website. Season one runs eight episodes, with a new episode each Friday morning.

You’ll know when each episode is released when we send you a short email on Friday morning with a quick introduction to that week’s guest and a link.

Want a sneak peek? Listen to our trailer here (listen, runtime: 2:02). You can also subscribe now on Apple Podcast.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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