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Thursday, 24 October 2019

What we’re tracking on 24 October 2019

The first Russia-Africa summit wraps up in Sochi today. The opening day saw lots of talk but little in the way of action. Discussions were had on trade and investment, the Russian Industrial Zone and the resumption of Russian flights to Sharm (no breakthrough there — we have more on President El Sisi’s meeting with Putin in this morning’s Speed Round, below).

So, will El Sisi and Abiy Ahmed meet today? Heading into the summit we weren’t quite sure what the schedule was for the president’s anticipated meeting with Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. Tension on that front ratcheted up earlier this week when Ahmed said that Ethiopia could mobilize “mns” in the event of war with Egypt. It’s unsurprising, then, that there was nothing but radio silence on the GERD front.

Also still an open question: Will Ethiopia accept Washington’s offer to mediate the dispute? Egypt suggested yesterday that it would accept the invitation to talks with Ethiopia and Sudan in the US capital, but there’s been radio silence on the Ethiopian front.


A couple of quick event-related notes:

Cairo Water Week wraps up today, as does the Intelligent Cities Exhibition & Conference at the Hilton Heliopolis.

The IMF and AUC will be holding a discussion on the World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, 29 October from 1-3pm at Moataz Al Alfi Hall on AUC’s New Cairo campus. The talk, headlined “World Economic Outlook: Global manufacturing downturn, rising trade barriers” will be presented by Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, deputy director at the IMF’s research department.

Capitalizing on low borrowing costs, Saudi eyes USD 2.5 bn sukuk issuance: Saudi Arabia is planning a USD 2.5 bn sukuk (sharia-compliant bonds) issuance as the kingdom looks to capitalize on borrowing costs hitting their lowest level in four years, according to Bloomberg. The 10-year notes will be priced somewhere between 145 and 150 bps over the benchmark mid swap rate, a source familiar with the matter tells the news information service. The issuance should be enough to cover Saudi’s funding requirements to plug its budget deficit.

Other international stories worth knowing about:

  • Lebanon faces “cash crisis”: Protests in Lebanon have forced banks to close for the past six days, raising concerns over a potential bank run when they eventually open, CNBC says.
  • US to lift sanctions on Turkey: President Donald Trump announced yesterday that the US will lift sanctions on Turkey “unless something happens that we’re not happy with,” as a ceasefire between Turkey and Kurdish militia in northern Syria continued to hold. As Russian troops rolled into Syria yesterday, Trump declared that the US should “let someone else fight over this long blood-stained sand” and said that troops will now exit the country (forgetting to mention that the US is evidently still willing to fight over Syria’s oil fields).
  • Trump’s Ukraine envoy spills the beans on Biden investigation quid pro quo: The Donald tried to condition USD 391 mn in US aid to Ukraine on the government launching an investigation into the activities of former VP Joe Biden and his son Hunter, US diplomat William B. Taylor Jr. told impeachment investigators on Tuesday, the New York Times reports.

PSA- The National Meteorological Authority is forecasting the rain to continue in Cairo, the Delta and the North Coast through Friday. Our favourite weather app is calling for cloudy conditions and a high of 26°C through Saturday, with a chance of showers today, a chance of rain on Friday, and showers again for Saturday. Nineteen people have died over the past two days as a result of the heavy rains that lashed Cairo and the Nile Delta, Ahram Gate reported.

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