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Tuesday, 22 October 2019

Last night’s talk shows for Tuesday, 22 October 2019

Lamees El Hadidi owned the airwaves in her second night back after a prolonged hiatus. For context, remember she has returned with a regionally-themed show (Al Kahera Alaan), on a new network (Al Hadath TV, a subsidiary of Al Arabiya), and in a new format (two hours — one broadcast via satellite, one streamed online). El Hadidi, long seen by many in our community as the most astute of the talking heads when it comes to economics, didn’t disappoint last night, but remember: With a regional mandate, we’ll be seeing a lot less of Egypt out of Lamees.

As promised the night before, Lamees delivered an Egypt-focused talk with the IMF’s David Lipton, who was on-message as he stressed the standard talking points about Egypt’s relationship with the Fund, which wrapped this past weekend its annual meeting (alongside that of the World Bank) in DC. Egypt is, for the time being, we would suggest, the IMF’s poster child: We signed up for a reform program that ticked all of the IMF’s boxes, got funding to back it, and implemented it to the letter.

The question now: How are we working together going forward? Lipton, as you might expect, had no direct answer — by protocol, Egypt has to lead on that, and the Sisi administration has signalled we want to be pals, but it hasn’t said (exactly) how, only that it won’t be in a formal assistant program.

Interestingly, Lipton obliquely addressed popular discontent with reform programs, saying it is natural that Egyptians aren’t yet feeling relief after the reforms — the goal of the program was to stabilize and avoid a crisis, full-stop, he suggested. What people may not appreciate is how bad the situation could have become had there not been a program and had Egypt then had to grapple with runaway inflation or a deeper crisis leading to widespread lost jobs and a loss of confidence in the economy. A reform program is a success when it avoids all of this, which Egypt’s did.

When are consumers going to feel the benefits of the program? The economy needs to create mns of meaningful jobs, and this is only going to happen with a strong private sector. Business needs to be allowed to flourish, Lipton said — with internationally competitive export-oriented companies in particular need of support.

Lipton’s other key talking points with Lamees last night:

  • The IMF would be happy to work with Egypt again, although the “how” would obviously be different this time. The government needs to look at how to increase investment and job creation, both areas of interest to the Fund. Assistance can take many forms.
  • GDP growth at a 5.9% clip is in the cards for the current fiscal year;
  • Repayment of the USD 12 bn extended fund facility is on track to start from 2021 and Egypt, if it stays the course, should not have issues servicing its debt.

You can watch the full interview (dubbed in Arabic) here (watch, runtime: 23:30).

Lamees also noted last night that Saudi Arabia had renewed its deposits with the Central Bank, making it formal on the sidelines of the IMF annual meeting in DC. Also in Washington, Egypt and Kuwait inked agreements that will unlock the next phase of Kuwait’s USD 1.9 bn in development assistance for Sinai. We have more on this in this morning’s Speed Round, below.

Lamees’ regional segment focused on developments in Lebanon (where protests continue and the Lebanese Army directly confronted Hezbollah when it tried to ‘attack’ the protests — watch, runtime: 21:27). Her big non-economics / non-politics interview of the night was a sit-down with Egyptian national football team manager Hossam El Badri (watch, runtime: 2:06).

Lamees’ other half tip-toed into the consumer rights arena: El Hekaya’s Amr Adib rang up Electricity Ministry spokesman Ayman Hamza to discuss complaints about exaggerated and inaccurate electricity bills. Hamza stressed that citizens have the right to complain — and noted that the ministry has dumped its previously standard policy of pay now, appeal later (watch, runtime: 10:42).


Other messages to the masses from the talking heads last night:

  • President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is optimistic that Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan will agree how to best use their shared water resources (Masaa DMC, watch, runtime: 1:25 and Al Hayah Al Youm, watch, runtime: 3:25).
  • The State Information Service is out with a statement on El Sisi’s visit to Russia this week for the Russia-Africa summit. Coverage by Hona Al Asema’s Reham Ibrahim was typical (watch, runtime: 2:30).
  • There’s no plan to impose new fees or to hike fares on ferries or other small watercraft in the Suez Canal zone cities, according to Al Hayah Al Youm’s Lobna Assal, channeling Suez Canal Authority boss Lt. Gen. Osama Rabie. (watch, runtime: 2:28)

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