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Sunday, 21 July 2019

In a world where investors are bucking African stocks for African debt, Egypt shines at both

In a world where investors are bucking African stocks for African debt, Egypt shines at both: With Egypt’s GDP growing at 5.6% in FY2018-19, the country is bucking the “anemic” economic growth witnessed by African peers, giving it a clear advantage as far as equity traders are concerned. South Africa’s output contracted the most in a decade in 1Q2019, and its key index dropped 1.4% since April, Bloomberg says, while Nigeria is struggling to recover since the collapse of oil prices five years ago. Excluding South Africa, African stocks trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of barely 9 based on estimates for the next 12 months, far below the emerging and frontier market average ratio of 12. By contrast, the EGX30 has risen 4.6% YtD.

Egypt remains the star in a burgeoning African debt market: Even when looking at an African bull debt market, Egypt remains the most attractive carry trade there is. “EGP bonds, which yield 16%, have made total returns of almost 8% over that period, extending their gain this year to 25%,” Bloomberg notes. Foreign holdings in Egyptian treasuries stood at USD 19.2 bn mid-June, Vice Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk said at a presser on Wednesday. South Africa’s debt is up 6.9% since the end of April and Nigeria’s 4.7%, the news information service says.

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