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Thursday, 9 May 2019

Egypt’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% in 3Q2018-19

Egypt’s GDP growth accelerated to 5.6% in 3Q2018-19, up from 5.5% in 2Q2018-19 and 5.4% in 3Q2017-18, Planning Minister Hala El Said said in a statement yesterday. GDP growth in the first half of the 2018-19 fiscal year reached 5.4%, she added. The government anticipates a GDP growth rate of 5.8% in 4Q2018-19. Notably absent from the figures presented was GDP growth for 9M2018-19, which El Said usually provides. She had previously noted that an overall GDP growth rate of 5.8% was anticipated for the full fiscal year, up from 5.3% in FY2017-18. As we noted yesterday, Egypt’s budget deficit for 9M2018-19 shrank to 5.3% of GDP, compared to 6.2% in the same period a year earlier, according to Finance Minister Mohamed Maait.

Growth is being driven by energy, mining, retail and construction: Energy and mining (labeled together as “extraction”) contributed 30% of total growth in 3Q2018-19, followed by wholesale and retail (9.6%), construction (9.5%), real estate (8.5%), and telecoms (6.7%).

Tax revenues were up by EGP 65 bn in 9M2018-19, according to Finance Ministry figures cited byAl Mal, coming in at just north of EGP 468 bn. Tax revenues on commodities and services were up to EGP 247.4 bn from EGP 208.6 bn during the same period last year. Income tax also increased to EGP 164 bn from EGP 116 bn while Suez Canal tax revenues reached EGP 26.2 bn.

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