What we’re tracking on 26 March 2019
Forty years ago today, we made peace with Israel as President Anwar El-Sadat and Israeli PM Menachem Begin signed a peace treaty in Washington, DC. Two generations of children have been spared war as a result. Check out the New York Times’ coverage from the day the treaty was signed, go look at this great collection of behind-the-scenes shots of Sadat and Begin, newly released by the National Library of Israel, or view the Jerusalem Post’s collection of images from the day two months later that Sinai was returned to Egypt.
Back in the present day: Bulgarian President Rumen Radev and a delegation of some 30 companies are in Cairo today for business talks, Egypt Today reports.
Lest you need a reminder: it’s interest rate week as the CBE’s monetary policy committee meets on Thursday to decide on benchmark rates. Adding new predictions from leading research houses to our poll of analysts, we now count seven of 11 houses as calling a rate cut of up to 100 bps.
The counterpoint: A Reuters poll yesterday had eight out of 12 economists expecting the central bank to keep rates unchanged. The CBE’s overnight deposit rate is 15.75%, while its overnight lending rate is 16.75%.
A random thought that should have corporate Egypt crossing its fingers ahead of Thursday’s decision: Inflation has fallen to a 10-year low in emerging markets, prompting many central banks to cut interest rates “in a sharp reversal of last year’s trend.” In other words: If there’s a cut this week, it may not be the worst thing in the world for our attractiveness to the carry trade. And this at a time in which “the yield curve between [US] two-year and five-year notes inverted further than it had been and is now approaching levels at which the Fed has in the past cut rates.”
Also happening this week:
- Constitutional debate wraps on Thursday: The House of Representatives will hold its final round of consultations on proposed constitutional amendments on Thursday. The amendments would extend presidential terms and bring back the upper house of parliament, among other things, if they pass in a referendum expected as early as mid-April.
- The expo component of Cityscape Egypt runs Wednesday-Saturday.
It was a mixed day in the markets yesterday: European and US markets steadied yesterday following Friday’s sell-off, with most key indices finishing only slightly in the red. German business confidence data exceeded expectations, easing losses on some indices and contributing to modest gains in others. This has led the FT to suggest that investors panicked too much about the possibility of a global recession last week.
EM and Asian investors were unimpressed: The MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 1.2% yesterday, continuing a slide that began on Friday. The EGX followed suit, down 1.2% at the closing bell yesterday. Asian markets are all over the place this morning: Markets in China and Hong Kong are off about 2%, while the Nikkei is up 1.6% at dispatch time.
Things on our mind (or that we simply like) this morning:
Oil majors want to become utilitiesas “technology and climate change force energy providers to rethink their strategies,” the FT tells us. The piece was prompted by news that Royal Dutch Shell is rebranding its retail power business as Shell Energy and will switch 700k households to renewable power.
Asian economies will be bigger in 2020 than the rest of the world combined, the Financial Times says, predicting that the “Asian Century” effectively begins next year.
Hey, look at me. I’m a venture capitalist in the New York Times on how VCs are discovering the joys of traditional PR as they look to claim a piece of the hype surrounding the many upcoming tech listings such as Airbnb, Pinterest, Uber, Lyft, Postmates, Peloton and Slack.
Apple announced a TV app, news app, gaming service and credit card at its event last night. The news is front-page everywhere this morning (FT | WSJ | Reuters | Bloomberg | the Verge | iMore) or you can learn more about Apple TV+, Apple News+, Apple Arcade and Apple Card.
We’re not sure we like it, but as inveterate Jeep people, the new Gladiator certainly caught our attention. Check out reviews (from late last year — we’re late to the party) from Car and Driver and Top Gear.
Among the handful of international news stories worth knowing about today:
- The Donald de facto green-lit an Israeli annexation of the Golan Heights yesterday as he signed a proclamation with Israeli PM Bibi Netanyahu recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Syrian territory, the NYT reports. Arab League Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit denounced the move, saying that US actions do not change the area’s status under international law.
- Nike got slapped with a EUR 12.5 mn fine by the European Commission yesterday for blocking cross-border sales of branded merchandise belonging to different European football clubs, Reuters reports.
- Lawmakers in the UK have voted to take Brexit out of the hands of PM Theresa May, narrowly voting to allow MPs to “set a timetable for debate and subsequent votes on alternative outcomes for Brexit,” CNBC reports.
PSA- Go cook something from the NYT’s recent In Praise of Sauce. We’re debating between roasted chicken thighs with peanut butter barbecue sauce and broccoli and scallions with Thai-style vinaigrette.