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Wednesday, 6 March 2019

EM growth potential and the factors impacting it

Global equities are currently risk-positive as inflows into risk assets remain low, investors remain long on cash and central banks hold off rate-hikes, Dwyfor Evans, Macro Strategist for State Street, argues on Bloomberg Radio (listen, runtime: 06:57). Evans highlights EM equities and Chinese equities as being particularly attractive. “If you’re looking for a growth story, there are valuation and growth opportunities still in emerging markets, and China is leading the way there,” he said. “We like EM equities and we like Chinese equities,” he added.

Even if there is a US-China trade agreement, don’t expect the tariffs to vanish overnight, Evans says, suggesting that The Donald’s protectionist tendencies are a fundamental part of his administration. Where will he turn his attention next? (Hint: India and Turkey).

Has the Fed painted itself into a corner? It’s possible that the central banks have gone a bit too far with their rhetoric, Evans says. With core US inflation being very stable, the Fed doesn’t have much leeway in cutting rates, which sets up the markets which are beginning to price in rate cuts for disappointment.

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