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Tuesday, 26 February 2019

The developed world is slowing faster than emerging economies

The developed world is slowing faster than emerging economies: For all the talk for the EM slowdown over the past year, advanced economies are faring worse, Steve Johnson writes in the FT. While it is true that the IMF’s latest EM forecasts of just 4.5% growth in 2019 weren’t pretty, the slowdown is concentrated in just a handful of emerging economies. “Deceleration in emerging markets is less pronounced than in developed markets, and most of that is in Turkey and Argentina,” Patrick Zweifel, chief economist at Pictet AM, said. What’s more, the gap between headline growth indicators in developed economies and emerging economies is now at levels not seen since 2013.

Good news for EM currencies: All this suggests that EM currencies are currently undervalued in relation to the USD, Johnson writes. Pictet’s data shows that EM currency aggregates have only risen during times of simultaneous slowdown in the advanced and emerging worlds.

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