Reforms alone may not be enough to wean Egypt off the IMF: The government’s economic reform program won’t address Egypt’s underlying economic imbalance, AUC assistant professor Amr Adly (bio) writes in a contrarian opinion piece for Bloomberg. Only a concerted effort to revive the country’s industrial base will prevent the country from once again having to go cap in hand to the IMF, he argues. Our manufacturing base is heavily dependent on imports of raw materials, intermediate goods and capital goods. “By some estimates, production inputs made up more than 50 percent of the import bill in 2017,” he writes. “Exports have historically been less than half of imports; so, to raise the hard currency necessary to meet its external commitments, Egypt depends on workers’ remittances, tourism and, to a lesser extent, foreign direct investment.”

So, what do we do? Adly argues that sustainable growth will be built on a healthy industrial base that is less reliant on imports to support production. Metals, plastics, and chemicals have all shown potential for growth, and the government should stimulate activity in these sectors by offering credit guarantees and technology-transfer subsidies to manufacturers.