Have the talking heads exaggerated the impact of a strong greenback on emerging markets? A number of analysts speaking to the FT argue so, saying that while a rising USD and interest rates are a factor in the emerging market selloff, it is not the determining factor.

So what is the cause? “Saying it is all about the USD is a misrepresentation,” says Bernd Berg, global macro and foreign exchange analyst at Woodman, a Swiss asset manager. He points instead to slowing growth in China, a loss of confidence in EM as a result of turmoil in Argentina and Turkey, and the trade war between the US and China. “If there is one thing that drives the USD, it is the difference between US growth and growth in the rest of the world,” says Bhanu Baweja, deputy head of global macro strategy at UBS. “So there is correlation rather than causation, and if you say EM is all about the USD, you are really undervaluing EM’s issues.”

The data supports the view: “The sell-off during the summer was independent of the move in the USD,” Berg argues, noting that the DXY USD index was moving sideways between June and September, while EM currencies were in decline. Since then, the greenback has risen as EM currencies have remained flat. “In the USD’s upward cycle EM currencies are getting weaker, and in its downward cycle they are not appreciating,” says Baweja. “With very few exceptions, EMs have depreciated in a straight line. You quickly see that this is not a USD strength or weakness story.”

Look to the PBoC and not the Fed: Instead of looking to the US Federal Reserve, analysts should be looking to the People’s Bank of China. “The willingness and ability of Beijing to support growth through fiscal stimulus should have at least as much impact on EM assets as any decisions taken at the Fed,” writes Jonathan Wheatley.