Egypt is the fourth most vulnerable to the EM Zombie Apocalypse
Egypt is one of the countries most vulnerable should the EM Zombie Apocalypse bite again,according to study by Bloomberg Economics. Turkey was the most vulnerable, followed by Argentina and South Africa. Thailand and Saudi Arabia are the least vulnerable of the 20 nations included in the study.
What’s the methodology? Bloomberg Economics cobbled together a ‘vulnerability index’ that takes into account the current account balance and short-term external debt (both as a percentage of GDP), reserve coverage, government effectiveness and CPI inflation. Data is primarily from the World Bank and IMF as well as from the national stats agencies of each of the 20 countries.
The bad news for Egypt: We were given the lowest score for government effectiveness in our peer group, suggesting we have a “less-than-optimal” ability to deal with long-term external shocks. Foreign currency reserves, although now adequate after being rebuilt by the central bank, are also fairly low in comparison to the peer group.
The good news for Omm El Donia: Our short-term external debt position is the strongest among the 20 economies in the group: Egypt’s ratio of short-term external debt, by residual maturity, to GDP stands at 5.0% so far into the year. Another good sign is that, although inflation has overshot the central bank’s target in the third quarter, the miss was likely transient and we’re doing far better on that front than Turkey and Argentina.