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Wednesday, 15 August 2018

Is Egypt’s attraction to carry traders making it especially at risk from fallout from the Turkey crisis?

Is Egypt’s attraction to carry traders making it especially at risk from fallout from the Turkey crisis? The Institute of International Finance (IIF) sees Egypt as one of the emerging markets that will be impacted the most from the Turkish crisis contagion. In a report out on Tuesday (pdf), the IIF said that Egypt, South Africa, Indonesia, Lebanon, and Colombia as especially at risk from contagion due to the concentration risk arising from large portfolio inflows to them in such a small period of time. Essentially, the “hot money” that we’ve picked up from carry traders and the pace with which it came in appears to be making these countries vulnerable.

Not by the gov’t’s count: Finance Minister Mohamed Maait had told us in an exclusive this week that not only is Egypt not vulnerable, but that the Turkey crisis has driven further portfolio inflows to Egypt last week.

One thing that is definitely impacted is our exporters, as Turkish importers of Egyptian ready made clothes have cancelled their contracts as a result of the crisis, Textiles Industry Council’s deputy head Magdy Tolba tells Amwal Al Ghad. He added that Turkish exports make up 30% of all of Egypt’s textile exports.

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