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Sunday, 12 August 2018

What we’re tracking on 12 August 2018

The news week has gotten off to a solid start, as the new month brings us the inflation figures. The weekend’s most gripping news which we dive into in greater detail in the Speed Round, include:

  • Annual headline inflation cooled to 13.5% in July, down from a high of 14.4% in June.
  • We have very interesting new updates on the state privatization program.
  • We also try to break down the hysteria we’ve seen in recent weeks over changes to the real estate tax.

It’s PMI Day: The Emirates NBD purchasing managers’ index for Egypt covering July 2018 will be released today.

PSA- Dar Al Ifta announced yesterday the first day of Eid Al Adha will be Tuesday, 21 August, with Waqfat Arafat taking place on Monday. Expect most people to also take next Sunday off to bridge into a full nine-day vacation.

Trump smacks Erdogan again, causing freefall in Turkish economy: US President Donald Trump announced a new set of tariffs against Turkey on Friday, sending the lira (and its economy) in a freefall verging on a full-fledged financial crisis. “I have just authorized a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar,” Trump said in a tweet. The move has caused the lira to sink to a new record low, according to the FT.

Further escalation possible: But that’s not stopping Erdogan from continuing to mouth off, threatening the US that he will seek “new friends and allies,” according to the FT.

Ruining the zombie recovery for the rest of us: The slide in the lira, coupled with the strengthening USD, has definitely impacted emerging markets still trying to get their bearing after surviving a meltdown in 1H2018. The JPMorgan EM currency index plunged this week, falling 2.1% on Friday, the salmon colored paper says. The index fell 12.5% below its January high, with currencies insulated from the crisis, such as the rand, being impacted. The MSCI EM equity index is down 16%.

How severe is the contagion? It will likely not impact emerging markets for very long as Turkey’s bizarre and unique monetary and economic policies has done more to shape opinions on EMs, analysts tell Bloomberg. It’s unlikely for the problem to ripple across to the rest of the emerging world because “there aren’t really any other emerging markets which have the exact toxic blend that Turkey has,” they said, adding that the impact may be “noticeable, but it will not cause a crisis.”

EU presses KSA on human rights: The dispute between Canada and Saudi Arabia continues to dominate international headlines, as the European Union appears to be backing Canada in the dispute. The EU has asked Saudi Arabia to shed light on the arrests of women human rights activists, which triggered the initial dispute. The EU added that detainees should be granted due process to defend themselves, according to Reuters.

Meanwhile, the Saudi media’s intensifying attacks on Canada is receiving top billing on a number of outlets including Bloomberg. The attacks targeted Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the state of Canada’s prisons, and its homelessness problems.

In other global news, Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party nominated President Omar Al Bashir for reelection in the 2020 presidential election, despite a two-term limit decreed by the country’s constitution, the Associated Press reports, citing the Sudanese News Agency. Al Bashir had previously said he would not seek a third term after the end of his two five-year terms.

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