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Tuesday, 7 August 2018

What we’re tracking on 7 August 2018

It’s earnings season and the start of Peak Sahel at the same time, so news today is largely dominated by talk of regulatory policies and the government’s release of macroeconomic data.

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is in Washington today for day two of a two-day visit that will see him meet US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and White House National Security Advisor John Bolton.

In other foreign policy news of interest to many of our readers: The Saudi spat with Canada deepened yesterday as the UAE and Bahrain came out in support of Riyadh’s move to curb diplomatic and investment ties with a longtime ally. “We stand with Saudi Arabia in taking steps to defend its sovereignty and laws … The belief of some countries that their model or experience allows them to interfere in our affairs is rejected,” UAE Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Anwar Gargash wrote on Twitter. The secretaries general of both the Gulf Cooperation Council and of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation also said they support Riyadh’s move.

Among other recent developments:

  • Saudi is moving some 20k scholarship students out of Canada to the US, UK, Australia and New Zealand.
  • State airline Saudia is suspending flights to and from Toronto on 13 August, Reuters adds.
  • Canada has refused to back down, saying that while it is “seriously concerned … and seeking greater clarity on the recent statement from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia … Canada will always stand up for the protection of human rights.”

What sparked this? Canada’s foreign minister tweeted about the detention of Samar Badawi, a rights activist whose brother Raif had already been detained back in 2012. Raif’s wife and children live in Canada, and his wife was recently made a citizen.

Still in question: The fate of a CAD 15 bn contract with a Canadian unit of General Dynamics to supply armored vehicles to KSA. Plus: Neither side has yet made clear what any of this means for visa regimes or other policies.

This isn’t the first time Canada has squabbled with a GCC nation: Canada and the UAE rowed from 2010 until 2013 over landing rights for Emirati airlines in Canada and Canada’s use of military logistics facilities in the UAE. The spat ended when then-Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird buried the hatchet over a cup of Tim Horton’s coffee in the UAE with Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Nor is it the first time the Saudis have taken a swipe at an ally. Riyadh recalled its ambassador to Stockholm in 2015 after Sweden’s foreign minister criticized KSA over the Raif Badawi case. The tiff ended “after the Swedish king sent a message to his Saudi counterpart,” the FT said. Saudi recalled its ambassador to Berlin in November of last year after Germany’s foreign minister alleged Saudi had coerced Saad Hariri to resign as prime minister of Lebanon.

The story is front page in the global business press. See more in the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Bloomberg (here and here) and New York Times (including an editorial).

US re-imposes economic sanctions on Iran: The US re-imposed on Monday a series of sanctions on Iran that had been waived following the Iran Nuclear Pact in 2015, according to a White House statement. “These actions include re-imposing sanctions on Iran’s automotive sector and on its trade in gold and precious metals, as well as sanctions related to the Iranian rial.” The measures will take effect today. Naturally, Iran was not happy with the move. The decision had stoked fears of the impact it would have on global prices, which has in part prompted Washington to pressure OPEC members to raise production.

It’s one of those rare weeks in which we’ll admit the weekend cannot come soon enough, even if it does kick off the countdown to a rather lengthy trans-Atlantic trek.

And because we’re in one of those moods this morning, we’re reflecting on The mystery of end-of-life rallies (New York Times) and the fact that The call to care of aging parents now comes sooner(Wall Street Journal).

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