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Sunday, 29 July 2018

Goldman Sachs is calling it — it’s the end of the EM Zombie Apocalypse

Goldman Sachs is calling it — is it really the end of the EM Zombie Apocalypse? The plunge that emerging market assets witnessed this year could have bottomed out in June, with the rally witnessed in July looking likely to be a sustained rebound, according to an analysis by Goldman Sachs picked up by Bloomberg.

The recent retreat isn’t out of the ordinary and don’t stand out as being unusual when considered against history, Goldman analysts Caesar Maasry and Ron Gray wrote in the report. “EM assets tend to be volatile and these sorts of corrections happen every year,” they said. “The moves this year are well in line with the historical playbook.”

Whether it’s the right time to plunge back into emerging markets varies by asset class, they concluded. “The strategy of calling a bottom on a stabilization of prices alone is unlikely to be a winning strategy, especially since the risk of mis-calling the bottom and facing the sharp drawdown that typically comes in the last month can be extremely painful,” the report said.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.1% — the biggest weekly rally since the five-day period that ended in May. Analysts at Bloomberg put this rally to Chinese stimulus measures and an agreement between the US and EU to suspend new tariffs lifted risk appetite.

Goldman urges you to avoid Turkey like the plague: One EM the investment bank is recommending to avoid like a weeklong Sahel break with the in-laws is Turkey. “One has to be nervous about Turkey,” Goldman Sach’s emerging markets chief Sam Finkelstein tells Bloomberg TV. “They are doing everything wrong.” We could have told you that.

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