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Tuesday, 22 May 2018

What we’re tracking on 22 May 2018

We’re deep in the arms of the Ramadan news lull with less than a week of the Holy Month now past. Stil, what news we have is meaty, and we have plenty of other reading to keep your pre- and post-fast hours filled.

The investment and oil ministries are reportedly signing agreements with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development today, according to Al-Ahram. No details on the agreement were disclosed.

Goodbye, El Sherka El Almaneya: Longtime readers know we have reservations about the proposed Cyber Crimes Act, but there’s one provision we’re very much down with: An article that would stop the flood of unsolicited spam SMSes. On the table is a proposition that would penalize mobile network operators for leaking or selling their customers’ personal data to telemarketing companies or any other entity that will use the data to promote any goods and services, Youm7 reports. Article 25 of the law would impose a prison sentence of at least six months and a fine ranging between EGP 50k and 100k for violators. The House of Representatives had approved the text of the draft law earlier this month, but postponed its final vote due to a lack of quorum.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management sees the outlook for risk asset returns improving this year in its 2018 Mid-Year Outlook report. This comes off the back of the global slowdown which began in 2017, which Goldman sees as having lowered the bar for positive news on growth going forward. It sees interest rates, a sell-off in equities, and emerging market assets creating more room for potential upside for risk asset returns. The report notes that market volatility has re-emerged and while Goldman expects further drawdowns, it does “not anticipate a shift to a persistently high-volatility regime.” The firm expects three additional interest rate hikes by the US Federal reserve this year.

Despite the sell-off, Goldman is still bullish on EMs: “We are bearish US rates, while bullish on EM currencies with strong underlying macro stories,” says the report (we see Egypt fitting comfortably here). The firm also sees value in emerging market debt after recent underperformance in the sector. In equities, Goldman lumps emerging markets with US small caps as “bright spots.” You can read the full report here (pdf), or access it through the landing page.

In other news from the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse: Turkey’s lira tanked yesterday. The currency is now down 17% for the year as traders turn bearish on EMs with “current account deficits and / or high dollar-denominated debt and / or political uncertainty and / or a dependency on oil,” the Financial Times reports. Meanwhile, foreign investors are walking away from South African bonds, having now become net sellers.

All of this has prompted UBS to very helpfully state the obvious: “EMs will have to refind [sic] a competitive edge.” Writing for the FT, which of late has come across as the (1950s-style) Pravda for the EM Zombie Apocalypse, UBS’ deputy head of macro strategy declares, “Historical truisms about EM’s high growth beta and demographic dividend are coming into question. The answers don’t lie in their monetary or fiscal policy, which, broadly speaking, remain orthodox. They are to be found in education, innovation and productivity.” Thanks.

Don’t feel picked on, though: Goldman Sachs sees the US economy going to hell in a handbasket, too. Goldman’s chief economist has written that fiscal outlook for the United States is “not good … and could pose a threat to the country’s economic security during the next recession,” CNBC reports. Investors, meanwhile, are as afraid of the tanking of corporate bonds as they are of the EM sell-off. A Bloomberg Barclays index of US investment-grade credit is down 3.9% so far this year, while a JPMorgan Chase index sees these shortfalls as the third-worst 100-day returns on US corporate bonds since 2000. USD bonds of emerging markets have declined at a comparable rate, says Bloomberg.

Your Ramadan rundown for today:

Bank hours run 09:30 am to 01:30 pm for customers and from 09:00 am to 02:00 pm for employees, CBE announced.

The EGX is running shorter trading hours. The trading session kicks off at 10:00 am, but closes at 1:30 pm. Tap or click here for the full schedule.

It’s going to be hot all week: The heatwave continues through Thursday, with forecasts for a daytime high of 43°C today and tomorrow. Respite comes on Saturday, when you can expect a string of days at 33°C running through Wednesday of next week.

So, when do we eat? For those of us, Maghrib is at 6:46 pm CLT today. You’ll have until 3:16 am tomorrow to finish your sohour.

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