EBRD ups forecast for Egypt economic growth in FY2017-18 by to 5.3%: The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Egypt’s economy to grow by 5.3% in FY2017-18, up 0.8 bps from a previous estimate of 4.5%. Economic growth is expected to accelerate further in FY2018-19 to 5.5%, “supported by the continued boost in confidence, recovery in tourism, increase in foreign direct investment, improved competitiveness, continued strengthening of exports, the start of natural gas production from the Zohr field, the implementation of business environment reforms and prudent macroeconomic policies,” the EBRD said in its updated Regional Prospects Report for 2018 (pdf).

There are risks that threaten to change the current outlook. Among those are increases to global oil prices, a slowdown in the pace of reforms, a rise in inflation levels as the state moves to cut subsidies further in July, in addition to geopolitical and security concerns. The report says, however, that “authorities’ strong commitment and ownership of the economic reform programme” is helping to mitigate the risk.

Predictions for growth in Egypt led the EBRD to revise its estimates for the wider SEMED region. The EBRD sees average GDP for the region growing by 4.4% this year, up from an estimated 4.0% in the November 2017 edition of the report, “owing to a stronger performance in the first half of the fiscal year in Egypt and positive developments in the rest of the region.”