Three of the many reasons you shouldn’t expect significant changes in the FX rate over the coming 12 months:

#1– Thomas Cook is calling it — the tourism “terror slump” is over: Holiday bookings giant Thomas Cook says the Mideast tourism slump that came on the back of terror attacks is over. Bookings for Egypt, Turkey and Tunisia are picking up, CEO Peter Fankhauser tells Bloomberg in an interview. Demand is being driven by a perceived lower terror threat as time passes, combined with a jump in the cost of vacations in Spain, he added. “Egypt is also recovering, though flights to Sharm El Sheikh remain grounded after the suspected bombing of a departing Russian jet in 2015, with the rival Red Sea resorts of Hurghada and Marsa Alam picking up the slack. The latter has become a “mixed” resort with Britons joining the German visitors who previously dominated,” he said.

#2– Egypt’s non-oil exports grew 15% y-o-y in 1Q2018 to USD 6.3bn, up from USD 5.5 bn in the same period last year, Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil said in a statement on Friday. Egypt’s foreign trade grew 9% y-o-y for the quarter to USD 21.3 bn, bringing Egypt’s total trade deficit down 2% y-o-y, Kabil added. The figures highlight the success of the ministry’s strategy to boost exports and lower imports, he added. Egypt’s account deficit had fallen 64% y-o-y to USD 3.4 bn in 1H2017-18, primary come on the back of higher tourism, remittances and an increase in merchandise exports.

#3– Egypt is among the world’s top recipients of remittances in 2017 with around USD 20 bn received, according to a report on Monday from the World Bank. Egypt came in sixth overall, following India (USD 69 bn), China (USD 64 bn), the Philippines (USD 33 bn), Mexico (USD 31 bn), and Nigeria (USD 22 bn). Strong inflows into Egypt was a main driver behind a 9.3% y-o-y growth in remittances to the MENA region to USD 53 bn. The outlook for growth in regional remittances is dampened by tighter foreign-worker policies in Saudi Arabia in 2018. “Cuts in subsidies, increase in various fees and the introduction of a value added tax in Saudi Arabia and the UAE have increased the cost of living for expatriate workers. In 2018, growth in remittances to the region is expected to moderate to 4.4% to USD 56 bn.” Globally, remittances to low- and middle-income countries rose 8.5% y-o-y to USD 466 bn in 2017, while overall global remittances, which include flows to high-income countries, grew 7% to USD 613 bn in 2017.

Against that background: BNP Paribas says it’s in Egypt’s short-term interest to limit EGP appreciation and maintain the country’s attractiveness with international investors. “The exchange rate’s upside potential also seems to be limited, even though capital flows should continue to provide support in the short term,” writes the bank’s senior economist Pascal Devaux. All in all, he sees the CBE cutting interest rates by as much 400 bps in 2018.