Why aren’t ratings agencies seeing the same picture as investors when it comes to Egypt?

Why aren’t ratings agencies seeing the same picture as investors when it comes to Egypt? “Egypt is bucking the conventional wisdom when it comes to gauging a country’s ability to repay its debt,” writes Bloomberg’s Ahmed Feteha. With a B3 rating from Moody’s and B- from S&P, Egypt is ranked below Nigeria and Argentina by both agencies. Yet the cost of insuring Egypt’s debt against default for five years is lower than Nigeria’s and almost the same as Argentina’s, says Feteha. Inflows to Egypt’s debt have risen to over USD 20 bn since the EGP float, raising USD 2.4 bn through a eurobond issuance last week. Its equities have outperformed peers, rising 18% since the beginning of 2018, the third-best performer out of 106 indexes tracked by Bloomberg. “No matter what they say, investors prefer strong macro and political continuity,” said Elina Ribakova, head of EMEA Research at Deutsche Bank AG in London. Argentina is still struggling to get inflation under control, while Nigeria’s foreign currency regime is “far from transparent,” she said.