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Tuesday, 10 April 2018

Emerging markets to grow in sync in 2018

Emerging market economies are in for a “rare burst of synchronized growth” this year, for the first time since 2011 and with very few exceptions, Steve Johnson writes for the Financial Times. While it is unusual for EMs to experience simultaneous growth, it likely the impact of “growth-supportive monetary policy in the US and eurozone, alongside the recovery in commodity prices,” according to Renaissance Capital chief economist Charles Robertson. This trend is seen continuing in 2018, as “‘commodity prices have now stabilized, global growth has picked up and currencies have weakened, the inflationary impulse of that has fed through and [monetary] policy can be a bit more supportive,’” said Capital Economics’ William Jackson. They note, however, that the health of EM economies is contingent upon growth in the US, Europe, and China, warning that certain countries, including Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Russia, and Brazil could be looking at a medium-term recession in the face of a crisis (such as a potential Sino-US trade war), “given that the economic recoveries in all three countries are still quite fragile.”

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