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Wednesday, 24 January 2018

Anan’s detention and the IMF’s review of Egypt’s reforms dominate the airwaves

The airwaves were abuzz last night with chatter about former military chief Sami Anan’s detention and the IMF’s report on its second review of Egypt’s economic reform program.

Egypt has begun reaping the fruit of its reforms, as reflected by declining inflation and the narrowing budget deficit, IMF Mission Chief for Egypt Subir Lall told Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer. He said that soaring inflation was an unavoidable side-effect of reforms, but that the CBE’s target of pushing the figure down to 13% by year’s end is “very much within reach.” Lall noted that the report (the details of which we delve into in Speed Round, below) looks into the broad strokes of Egypt’s reform program and assesses short- and long-term issues. From here on out, the private sector must be encouraged to create jobs and spur economic growth, Lall said.

Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk told Hona Al Asema’s Lamees Al Hadidi that the government is sticking to its timeline for phasing out fuel subsidies by the end of FY2018-19. Diesel and butane are exempted from this plan, since they are most widely used by lower-income citizens. Kouchouk also said Egypt is still studying implementing a pricing mechanism that would see global oil prices automatically reflect on domestic prices, but is not obligated to implement the scheme by the IMF (watch, runtime: 4:08).

The IMF report’s recommendation to keep interest rates stable is based on inflation rates prior to their month-on-month deceleration, and in any case these recommendations are in no way binding, Kouchouk said. He stressed that the government has its own program in place and has the liberty to decide whether or not to follow the IMF’s advice (watch, runtime: 3:42).

Finance Minister Amr El Garhy presented his ministry’s three-year strategy at yesterday’s weekly ministerial meeting, Cabinet spokesperson Ashraf Sultan told Al Hayah Al Youm’s Tamer Amin. The plan includes reducing the public debt-to-GDP ratio, achieving a primary budget surplus of 2%, increasing GDP growth, lowering inflation, and bumping up state revenues with more taxes while rationalizing expenditures (watch, runtime: 6:03).

Amin also spoke with former military prosecutor Sayed Hashem about the detention of Sami Anan yesterday, which Hashem shrugged off as something the former military chief of staff should have seen coming. He said that Anan is well-aware of military’s law, which bar its active and reserve members from engaging in political activity (watch, runtime: 9:31).

Kol Youm’s Amr Adib seemed to be on the verge of a meltdown as he came to grips with Anan’s exclusion from the presidential race, which he said has effectively guaranteed the elections will take place sans competition. He pored over foreign coverage of the arrest, which is being framed as a power struggle (watch, runtime: 54:26).

Back on Hona Al Asema, Khaled Ali campaign spokesperson Amr Abdel Rahman said that the way the state dealt with the Anan debacle is of greater concern than whether his bid was actually a violation of military law. Abdel Rahman said that he is keeping an eye on how these developments will affect turnout at the elections. He also denied that Ali is withdrawing from the race, saying that “all options are still on the table” (watch, runtime: 2:35).

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