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Wednesday, 17 January 2018

Fitch Ratings’ outlook revision and EFG Hermes’ Egypt Day Conference

Fitch Ratings’ revision of Egypt’s outlook to positive and EFG Hermes’ Egypt Day Conference were the most business-relevant topics of discussion on the airwaves last night.

An upgrade in Egypt’s credit rating from any one of the ratings agencies is likely to happen sometime this year as economic reforms continue to bear fruit, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy told Hona Al Asema’s Lamees Al Hadidi. El Garhy noted that the state budget deficit has narrowed to 10.9% this fiscal year — and said that the significant drop in the primary deficit is also a positive indicator that signals the state’s expenditures are tenable. The ministry is anticipating that next year’s financing gap will stand at USD 12-14 bn.

On concerns over Egypt’s total debt level, El Garhy said the state is looking to push the figure to less than 90% of GDP in FY2018-19, down from 108% currently. He said that the discrepancy between the CBE and Fitch’s figures for Egypt’s debt is because of how the ratings agency accounts for investment in treasury bills, which the CBE does not include in its calculations since they are short-term instruments. External debt currently account for 41% of the country’s total debt, with the government aiming to bring it down to 25% by the end of FY2017-18 and 30-31% by the end of FY2018-19.

El Garhy also briefly touched on President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s meeting yesterday with fund managers at EFG Hermes’ Egypt Day conference, where he said investors paid particular attention to improvements to the investment climate, the Trade and Industry Ministry’s map, regulations for investing in the Suez Canal Economic Zone, and the effect of regional politics on Egypt (watch, runtime: 17:49).

Lamees also spoke to Middle East Rating & Investors Service Chairman Amr Hassanein about Fitch’s outlook upgrade, which he said is usually a precursor to a full upgrade of the rating. Hassanein said he expects the credit upgrade to come within six months to a year provided the economy’s performance continues on the same upwards trajectory. Hassanein stressed the importance of boosting the country’s GDP — which would automatically reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio — and suggested further policies on integrating the informal economy were needed achieve this growth. He also pointed out the credit rating report mentioned political concerns, including a tightening grip on political opposition, as weighing down Egypt’s credit rating (watch, runtime: 8:08).

EFG Hermes CEO Karim Awad phoned in to tell Masaa DMC’s Osama Kamal about the Egypt Day Conference. Attending fund and portfolio managers have a generally positive view on what 2018 holds, Awad said, and believe economic reforms will continue to bear fruit throughout the year (watch, runtime: 3:49).

Kamal then spoke to MP and tourism expert Amr Sedky, who said that newly appointed Tourism Minister Rania Al Mashat’s economic background is just what the doctor ordered for the tourism industry. The majority of tourism investors are facing business-related burdens, including outdated bus fleets that would be costly to replace. Solutions require someone of Mashat’s background, Sedky said (watch, runtime: 6:02).

Over on Kol Youm, Amr Adib was fixated on Turkey having unveiling plans for a canal to reduce shipping traffic on the Bosphorus Strait. He said that the new canal is meant to replicate the Suez Canal and the Suez Canal Economic Zone and is an intentional attempt to take business away from Egypt (watch, runtime: 6:55). (Before we move on, we’d like to implore Adib to open a geography book every now and again.) SCZone deputy head Abdel Kader Darwish said that Turkey’s replication plans lends credence to Egypt’s vision for the SCZone, and told Adib that the zone has been working on infrastructure services such as water, gas, and communication networks to allow for the implementation of industrial projects (watch, runtime: 12:32).

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