Investors, analysts tell CNBC that all is well with Egypt after reforms
Investors, analysts tell CNBC that all is well with Egypt after reforms: Fresh after a continued wave of positive economic news — most recently being Egypt’s primary budget deficit falling to its lowest level in 10 years in 1H2017-18 and the government raising its growth forecast — investors speaking to CNBC’s Dawn Kissi expressed optimism of continued economic growth and gave their take on where they feel the economy is headed. Fear of an unstable currency appears to have all but faded. “The Egyptian pound has also been stable since the large devaluation in November 2016,” said Anthony Simond, investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments, adding the currency was likely to appreciate in the near-term.
“Long-term, Egypt needs better trade relationships and a more stable macro environment,” Peterson Institute for International Economics fellow Jacob Kirkegaard said, citing the need for the country to boost its links with the vast European Union market. He pointed to manufacturing, tourism and logistics as sectors that could make Egypt more competitive and boost foreign investment.
Consumer names staging a comeback? Michael Daoud-Irsaneous, Auerbach Grayson’s VP for CEEMEA Sales, says that consumer goods is where investors need to look in 2018: “In 2017, investors basically positioned themselves in the banks as well as direct plays on weaker currency,” he said. “In 2018, the focus is shifting more towards consumer names that were under pricing pressure last year because of inflation, but now inflation is coming off.”
The biggest fear appears to be the election and the possibility of political instability or (worse) backsliding on the Ismail government’s economic reform agenda to score political points. “While we expect the incumbent President Sisi to extend his term in office, there could be some security concerns in the run up to the election, while also the government may loosen its policy in order to boost its popularity,” Simond added.
A little bit of (unsolicited) advice from Enterprise: We’ve been asked on several occasions lately to come in and speak with senior management at major Egyptian and multinational companies about our outlook on 2018. It’s been rather fun. On the issue of the 2018 presidential elections: The president will run. The president will win. We will be excoriated in the international press throughout the process. And, as usual, populist (read: Egyptian Socialist) murmurings will be made. There will be a return to the status quo antebellum after the poll is done and the swearing-in ceremony held. And this is still the best time in a generation to invest in Egypt if your horizon is medium-term or longer.