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Monday, 15 January 2018

Cabinet shuffle reigns supreme on the airwaves

Yesterday’s cabinet shuffle and the incoming ministers’ strategies reigned supreme on the airwaves last night, with the talking heads paying little attention to other topics of discussion. Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer surprised us with an econ-heavy episode and depriving his viewers of their usual dose of Mustafa El Fekky.

Local Development Minister Abu Bakr El Gendy told Al Hayah Al Youm’s Tamer Amin that he will draw on the results of CAPMAS’ state census — which he oversaw as head of the state statistics agency — to figure out what the population needs the most and how to prioritize the issues at hand. El Gendy said he has already been instructed by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Prime Minister Sherif Ismail to focus on development projects and job creation in Upper Egypt. The new minister will also plays a role in preparing for municipal elections (some century) (watch, runtime: 4:53).

Deputy Health Minister Tarek Tawfik said he has been mandated with addressing the country’s ballooning population, which he told Amin is crippling economic and social growth. The ministry is looking at different strategies, including family planning programs and launching awareness campaigns, Tawfik said (watch, runtime: 2:26). So much for that demographic dividend we keep talking about. Remember folks: In our lifetimes, China’s population will start to decline and India’s will be stagnant, with Africa becoming the world’s primary engine of population growth.

Amin also spoke to Deputy Housing Minister Assem El Gazar, who said he is responsible for drafting a development strategy for various governorates, but priority will be given to North Sinai. El Gazar said that developing the area is the state’s best option for stamping out its terrorist insurgency (watch, runtime: 2:56).

Hona Al Asema’s Lamees Al Hadidi had a brief chat with Public Enterprises Minister Khaled Badawy, who remained tight-lipped about the state IPO program. Badawy told Lamees that he is still studying how best to manage public sector companies to the benefit of the economy, whether through IPOs or by restructuring them to make them profitable (watch, runtime: 4:40).

Lamees also spoke to Secretary General of the Arabism Egypt Party Sami Balah, who confirmed that former Armed Forces Chief of Staff Sami Anan will announce his intention to run for president at a press conference once he receives the required number of endorsement signatures. Balah complained to Lamees that this process has been hindered because Anan’s name is not listed on the endorsement forms at real estate registration offices (watch, runtime: 4:37).

Kol Youm’s Amr Adib provided color commentary on the shuffle, commending Prime Minister Sherif Ismail for his service, which Adib said was part of the reason he was not removed from his position despite his health condition (watch, runtime: 3:09).

The hardest economic reforms are now behind us, and 2018 will not entail the same burdens as 2017 did, CBE Assistant Sub-Governor of the Banking Reform Sector Hany Genena told Yahduth fi Masr’s Sherif Amer. The last quarter of 2017 carried with it positive signs including good performance at the EGX and some USD 40 bn of revenues from the Suez Canal and exports, while remittances from Egyptians abroad have reached USD 26.4 bn to date since the EGP float in November 2016, Genena said. Based on these and other metrics, the CBE is hoping to see inflation drop to 13% at the end of 2018.

EFG Hermes’ Head of Research Ahmed Shams discussed the changes in Egyptians’ spending patterns post-float, telling Amer that high inflation caused automotive purchases to nosedive, dropping 40% y-o-y. Food consumption volumes also dipped 25%, but there were some signs of recovery in 4Q2017, Shams said.

Over on Masaa DMC, Osama Kamal sat down with Supply Minister Ali El Moselhy to discuss his controversial price-printing policy, which El Moselhy claims has already helped to push down prices since it was implemented two weeks ago. El Moselhy also reviewed his ministry’s logistics-focused internal trade strategy (watch, runtime: 1:04:35).

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