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Sunday, 14 January 2018

What we’re tracking on 14 January 2018

Welcome to another very busy news day, ladies and gentlemen.

All signs point to a (minor?) cabinet shuffle today. The House of Representatives is set to vote at noon today on a presidential decree ordering a limited Cabinet shuffle. Parliamentary Speaker Ali Abdel Aal is reported to have called an emergency session of the House’s general assembly, where an absolute majority must approve the shuffle for it to pass, Al Masry Al Youm reports. Quorum for the gathering will be one-third of all members.

Who’s in and who’s out? The rumor mill was in overdrive this weekend, with conflicting reports suggesting that ministries ranging from agriculture, irrigation, and health to finance and investment could be getting new bosses. A source in government tells Al Masry Al Youm that while the initial list included changes to the Cabinet economic group, the final decision was to keep these ministers in place to maintain policy stability. Speculation elsewhere is that the tourism, youth and sports, local development, manpower, and culture ministers will be getting the boot.

Don’t expect Sherif Ismail to go into retirement just yet, the pundits say. The PM is believed to have returned to Egypt on 21 December after having sought medical treatment in Germany, but has yet to attend a cabinet meeting. Moustafa Madbouli remains acting prime minister and has denied having been tapped to form a new government, telling Al Mal that his role as head of Cabinet remains temporary.

But don’t expect him back at work soon: Sources told Al Masry Al Youm that Ismail will not soon be returning to work soon, as had previously been claimed.

The word from on high: State-owned Al Ahram reports that three ministries will get new leaders and that Ismail will not be among those replaced. Al Shorouk quotes deputy House speaker Suleiman Wahdan as saying much the same thing, noting that under the constitution, replacing Ismail would effectively require the government to be dissolved and for the House to approve the new PM’s agenda. MP Mostafa Bakry tells Youm7 much the same thing, saying a new government this close to the presidential elections isn’t desirable. Ismail has been PM since September 2015; nine ministers were swapped out in the last cabinet shuffle, which took place this past February.

The bottom line: Be ready for anything. While the steer from officialdom is for a limited shuffle, the domestic press is notorious for bad reporting on expected changes to cabinet lineups. Already, the talking heads on TV last night speculated that the shuffle would see anywhere from three to five new faces around the cabinet table this week. We have more in Last Night’s Talk Shows, below.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Hailemariam Desalegn arrives in Egypt today for a three-day visit, during which he will meet with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, unidentified sources tell Al Masry Al Youm. The visit comes after Cairo proposed including the World Bank in tripartite negotiations over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Desalegn was expected to visit Egypt last month, but his trip was postponed. It remains undecided whether he will address the House of Representatives, according to the sources, despite this previously being announced as the main feature of his visit. Some expect Desalegn’s visit to be a turning point in stalled negotiations between Cairo and Addis over the dam, particularly as negotiations have been ongoing to end the two countries’ disagreements over the dam’s impact studies, sources tell Al Shorouk.

Meanwhile, reports suggest Khartoum has no plan to de-escalate tension with Egypt. Sudan’s ambassador to Egypt, Abdel-Mahmoud Abdel-Halim, reportedly said on Friday that he was recalled last week in one of a series of moves that could include “withdrawing of ambassador or expulsion of other country’s ambassador or breaking off the relationship and declaring war,” Sudan Tribune reports. Sudan’s Foreign Ministry later denied Abdel-Halim made the remarks, — even though Sudan Tribune claims they were made in a brief to journalists, according to Al Masry Al Youm.

Oil quietly topped the USD 70 barrier on Thursday for the first time in three years, Bloomberg notes.

If anyone harbored illusions that The Donald wasn’t a racist… The Donald woke up on Thursday and decided it wasn’t enough to insult the developing world with policy alone. At a meeting at which he rejected a compromise on immigration reform, Trump is reported to have questioned why the US would accept more immigrants from Haiti and “[redacted] countries” in Africa rather than places like Norway. African leaders are up in arms.

Further afield this morning, a number of readers forwarded us yesterday links to Parents’ Dilemma: When to Give Children Smartphones from the Wall Street Journal. The crux of it: “When to allow children a smartphone has become among the most pivotal of parental decisions in the decade since Apple Inc.’s iPhone remade daily habits. For many families, the choice is as significant as when to hand over the car keys. It pits parents and teachers against some of the largest and most advanced companies in the world—a fight as lopsided as it sounds. The Journal’s service piece comes after what some have called a “week of soul searching” for big tech.

How to Succeed in Business? Do Less. After getting ink last week in Andrew Hill’s FT column, Morten Hansen crosses the Atlantic with an excellent piece for the Wall Street Journal that should be required reading for all C-suite officers, folks dreaming of building their own businesses, startup types, you name it. You can find the man’s blog here and pre-order his book, due out at month’s end, here. The title Great at Work: How Top Performers Do Less, Work Better, and Achieve More.

Have a few minutes extra this morning? Go read this week’s Lunch with the FT featuring Bridgewater boss Ray Dalio. The hedge fund giant talks rising income inequality and “why politics trumps economics in 2018.” Then skip over to the New York Times and learn why you’re wrong if you think Canadian whiskey is as insipid as that Crown Royal stuff with which you’ve been plied in the past.

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