The Planning Ministry has revised Egypt’s economic growth figure for FY2017-18 to 5.3-5.5% from a previous 5-5.25%, Minister Hala El Said announced on Saturday, according to Reuters. GDP growth “was expected to have grown 5.2-5.3% in the second quarter that ended in December,” according to El Said, who also said that the government is aiming for average GDP growth levels of 6% in FY2018-19. Egypt is also “targeting a 20% rise in total investment for FY2018-19, up from EGP 646 bn (USD 36.58 bn) targeted for FY2017-18,” the minister added.

Misplaced optimism when it comes to inflation figures? The revised forecasts followed the announcement of a sharp drop in monthly inflation levels in December, which fell to -0.2% — the lowest rate in two years — largely driven by a decrease in prices of staples including red meat, poultry, vegetables, and lentils. Some economists tell Reuters that “the inflation drop is the result of a strong base effect, and not necessarily a meaningful economic recovery.” Beltone Financial’s Alia Mahmoud says the decrease could just be a sign of weak demand for certain products, meaning that purchasing power has not yet recovered fully. “Segments of society have shifted from meat to cheese as a source of protein,” CI Capital Asset Management’s Noaman Khalid explains, stressing that “a complete economic cycle that includes business recovery and increased wages is necessary before purchasing power returns to pre-float levels.”