Goldman Sachs Research economists expect the world economy will continue to outperform most prediction in 2018. Jan Hatzius and Jari Stehn write in their 2018 Global Economic Outlook report that they expect world economy to grow at 4% in 2018, up from 3.7% in 2017 — and meaningfully above consensus.

“The strength in global growth is broad-based across most advanced and emerging economies,” they note. Goldman Sachs sees emerging markets growing at 5.6% in 2018, above the market consensus of 4.9%. “We are cautiously optimistic that the EM economies will be able to weather rougher waters following the adjustments of recent years. China’s move to a basket peg and partial closure of its capital account, declining currency mismatch in EM economies and a more broad-based global upswing have made EM economies more resilient and should enable them to cope with gradually tighter Fed policy. The bigger risks to our global outlook are likely political… escalating tensions around North Korea’s nuclear ambitions and ongoing instability in the Middle East pose geopolitical risks with highly uncertain but potentially important consequences for the global economy.”