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Sunday, 24 September 2017

Growth in emerging market car sales might be hampered by higher congestion

Growth in emerging market car sales might be hampered by growing congestion: Congestion levels are rising in virtually all emerging market cities, and falling in none, writes Steve Johnson for the FT. This is leading a number of analysts to deduce that EM car ownership may have to peak below the levels seen in the advanced world. Emerging market cities account for 19 of the 20 most congested cities, according to research by Dutch navigation equipment manufacturer TomTom. That’s not even counting cities in India or many of the most congested African cities, such as Lagos and Cairo. Analysts at Legal & General Investment Management point to higher population density and a lack of developed and expanded road networks for this congestion. They also point to places like China where regulations have been put in place to curb car ownership to reduce congestion and air pollution. The analysis flies in the face of conventional wisdom that says there will be a surge in car sales over the coming 20 years as emerging markets growth rises. BP is projecting EM vehicle fleets to triple, while ExxonMobil forecast a 62% rise in energy consumption by Asia-Pacific’s transportation sector between 2015 and 2040.

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