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Tuesday, 5 September 2017

What we’re tracking on 05 September 2017

Welcome back, ladies and gentlemen. Sahel season is ending — and summer with it — and it’s back to the grind for you and for the kiddies, with most private schools in Egypt heading back in between this morning and Sunday, 10 September. Traffic will get worse over the coming days, but D-Day is Saturday, 23 September, when public schools go back.

You have about 15 days and 17 hours left until our next three-day weekend, which is scheduled to take place on Thursday, 21 September. Plan from now to enjoy it: Armed Forces Day (6 October) falls on a Friday this year, so the next holiday thereafter is Thursday, 30 November for the Prophet Muhammad’s Birthday.

It’s going to be a busy fall for business as we all try to figure out how to budget for next year. We’re increasingly convinced 2018 will be more challenging than many presently expect. You’ll also want to pay close attention to the Ismail government’s very ambitious fall regulatory and legislative agendas, which will kick into high gear when the House reconvenes (most likely later this month, it seems). If you missed it last Thursday: We have a roundup of key legislation and pending regulatory changes here.

FDI rises 27.5% in FY2016-17, GDP growth confirmed at 4.9% in fourth quarter of the state fiscal year that just ended: The Finance Ministry had some good news right before Eid as it announced in a report that foreign direct investment rose 27.5% y-o-y in FY2016-17. The ministry confirmed that the economy grew 4.9% in the final quarter of the last fiscal year (the three months ending this past 30 June), compared to 2.3% in the same period last year. Trade deficit figures also improved, dropping to 46% during the year. The news won us some nice ink from Reuters, but before we get all smug, you may want to take note that Canada’s economy grew an insane 4.5% in the quarter ending in June.

Separately, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy announced that foreign interest in Egyptian debt remained strong in August, growing to reach USD 16 bn, up from USD 14.2 bn a month before.

Speaking of El Garhy, sources have confirmed to Youm7 that the minister and Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk will be attending the IMF and World Bank’s fall meetings in mid-October. They’re expected to discuss progress on the government’s economic reform agenda.

EgyptAir and the Civil Aviation Ministry claimed that the ban on electronic devices on flights to the UK was lifted as of last Friday. EgyptAir’s statement is vague and cites an “informed resources” in the airline itself. The UK ban differs slightly from the US one which has already been lifted.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will become the first Egyptian president to visit Vietnam when he heads to Hanoi tomorrow. El Sisi flies after a stop in China for the 2017 BRICS Summit, where he’s set to deliver a second speech today that will focus on investment opportunities for BRICS countries in Egypt. The president is also expected to sit down with senior execs from a number of Chinese companies. We have more in the Speed Round, below.

But all we can obsess over this morning is the nutter in Pyongyang dancing ever closer to nuclear Armageddon in his showdown with the Trump administration. More on this, too, in Speed Round.

STRATEGY WATCH- Norges Bank, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund at USD 990 bn, “has unveiled radical proposals to transform its bond investment by turning its back on corporate debt and fixed income in currencies other than USD, EUR and GBP,” the Financial Times reports. Its new approach would largely exclude “bonds denominated in yen or emerging market currencies, as well as long-dated issues such as 100-year instruments.” Norges still seems to like equities, though, noting in a public letter that “In the long term, the gains from broad international diversification are considerable for equities but moderate for bonds.”

What’s on everybody’s mind today, however, is Egypt’s last ditch attempt to finally make it to the World Cup. After this past Thursday’s devastating 1-0 loss to Uganda during the third round qualifiers, we are praying for a victory tonight. Not least since this may be Egypt’s last chance to qualify, and especially as the national treasure that is goalkeeper Essam El Hadary will not be playing due to injury. We have a home field advantage we should press, with Ahram Online reporting that the government will allow up to 70,000 fans to attend the match in Borg Al Arab. Kickoff will be at 8:00 pm CLT.

Are you (or your kid) going college this week? Whether it’s for the first first time or a return for senior year, it can be alienating as [redacted]. The New York Times’ Frank Bruni has an excellent column reminding us all that iMessage and WhatsApp with friends and family from “back home” is no substitute for making real friends at university.

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