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Sunday, 13 August 2017

Inflation rate surges to 33% in July

Inflation surges in July: The annual urban headline inflation rate increased to 33% in July from 29.8% in June with the m-o-m rate also rising to 3.2% from 0.8%, according to CAPMAS. The annual rate is the highest since the EGP float last November. Core inflation also shot up to 35.26% on an annualised basis from 31.95% in June, Reuters notes.

Blame subsidy reform, VAT: The government had implemented new fuel and electricity price increases as well as increasing the value-added tax rate to 14% from 13% Pharos Holding head of research Radwa El Swaify tells Bloomberg.

It could get worse before it gets better: El Swaify believes inflation could rise to 36% in August and September “because it takes about three months for the full pass-through of the subsidy cuts into the economy,” but that the rates should see a significant drop in the annual rates starting November because of base effects. Tap here to read Pharos’ Thursday research note on the topic (pdf), including breakdowns on contribution to inflation by category and of non-food items specifically.

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