What we’re tracking on 22 May 2017
Bad news this morning: The Central Bank of Egypt raised interest rates 200 bps overnight. We’re only starting to get our heads around the implications of the rate hike on borrowing costs for the state — let alone for investment by businesses, who will effectively be borrowing at what were once considered credit card interest rates, so you do the math — and bank margins. We have more in Speed Round, below.
We’re very happy this morning that Enterprise and Inktank are profitable and debt free. And we don’t really want to think at this instant about interest expenses for our friends, readers and clients going forward.
Good news this morning: US President Donald Trump confirmed he’s coming for a visit. His Riyadh speech wasn’t nearly as bad as it could have been. And he likes our president’s shoes. Again, we have chapter and verse in Speed Round.
Down the center: Speaking about borrowing costs for the state: Keep an eye out in the coming days for news of Egypt’s next USD 1.5-2 bn eurobond. The Finance Ministry has already tapped global debt markets in large part because borrowing costs there are so much lower, and the next eurobond issuance is expected this week. The eurobond and last night’s interest rate decision make Egypt one of the world’s emerging market hot spots this week, Bloomberg said last night.
Not a hot spot this month: Frontier markets, where flows remain negative even as emerging markets are running with the bulls — despite “strong growth and soft valuations” on the frontier. That’s a great opportunity for those with some gumption: Templeton’s Mark Mobius recently re-opened his frontier markets fund, saying, “We think it’s an incredible investment opportunity. [Frontier markets] are not owned by many people. They are often misunderstood. Of the 10 fastest-growing countries in the world, all are emerging markets, eight are frontier markets [Ethiopia, Ivory Coast, Myanmar, Uzbekistan, DR Congo, Cambodia, Tanzania and Rwanda, based on economic growth since 2012] … Demographics are very impressive. Urbanisation has a long way to go. Financial penetration is low, therefore there is big potential for growth,” the Financial Times quotes him as saying in a must-read if you have any interest in FM.
Get in touch with your inner finance geek (if you have a Wall Street Journal subscription) and read its series proclaiming that the quants have now officially taken over Wall Street. “For decades, investors imagined a time when data-driven traders would dominate financial markets. That day has arrived,” the paper declares. Installments out this morning are below; the series runs until Friday: