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Wednesday, 3 May 2017

Populism is great for markets — unless you’re Pakistan and heading into an election

Populism is great for stock returns, writes Bloomberg, noting that a look at “10 of the 21st century’s most recognized populist leaders shows that in the three years after their election, local equities soared an average of 155 percent in USD terms. And the rallies often continued as long as a decade after the vote.” What’s their secret? Stimulus spending that’s popular with consumers may often come back to haunt leaders down the road, but it often boosts consumer sentiment in the medium term, leading to “stronger consumer spending, which can be powerful drivers of markets,” says one buy-sider who is overweight the Philippines despite that flack its populist leader has taken for allegedly encouraging the murder of [redacted] dealers.

Also on Bloomberg yesterday: A look at why Pakistan isn’t getting much love from foreign investors despite its upgrade to MSCI Emerging Markets status at the end of this month. At the very moment the country is preparing to celebrate, “overseas money is draining away” — to the tune of USD 194 mn that’s left the equity market this year. What gives? Populism Lite isn’t doing much for sentiment here. “The exodus underscores how investors are taking cover as a graft probe surrounding Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, a stalled privatization program and the prospect of a government spending spree in the run-up to elections in the middle of next year start to take the sheen off one of 2016’s best-performing stock markets. The KSE100 Index surged 46 percent last year, beating every one of its peers in Asia,” the news service writes.

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