Egypt delegation heading to DC for IMF, World Bank spring meetings: Finance Minister Amr El Garhy is in Washington D.C. to attend the IMF and World Bank spring meetings, Al Masry Al Youm reports, noting that Deputy Finance Minister Ahmed Kouchouk is also part of the delegation. Central Bank Governor Tarek Amer and Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr are also attending. Nasr is due to present Egypt’s economic reform program at the G-24 ministerial meeting set to be held today on the sidelines of the spring meetings, Ahram Gate reports. The IMF and World Bank spring meetings kick off tomorrow and run through Sunday. The agenda page for the gatherings is live.

Thought paper for tax collectors and ministers of finance: The April 2017 edition of the IMF Fiscal Monitor is out ahead of the spring meetings under the headline “Doing More with Less” and notes in passing that “as is the case with growth-friendly policies, inclusive policies can be implemented without increasing the overall budget envelope and the fiscal deficit. In countries with limited or no fiscal space, inclusive policies would have to be accompanied by offsetting measures. In Egypt, for instance, full implementation of the VAT and tax administration reform could free resources for higher spending on health, education, and social protection.” The landing page for the report is here, while the full 162 page pdf is here.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s economy is expected to grow 4.0% in FY2016-17, in line with theFinance Ministry’s projections of 3.8-4.0%, according to a Reuters poll of 11 economists on Wednesday. The poll predicts economic growth will slow the following year to 3.3%, well below the government’s target of 4.8% laid out in the FY2017-18 budget, before accelerating back to 4.0% in FY2018-19. The median average annual core inflation — which takes an average of the 12 monthly readings — was 13.7% for the current fiscal year, up from a previous forecast of 13.0%. Analysts expect inflation to jump in to 21.0% in FY2017-18 before slowing to 13.0% the following year. As we noted yesterday, the IMF sees Egypt growing 3.5% this year while the World Bank puts the figure at 3.9%.

US Defense Secretary Jim Mattis is in Cairo today, according to Voice of America, pointing to the latest leg in Mattis’ Mideast tour as a sign of “Washington’s warming of relations with Cairo during the Trump administration’s first 100 days.” On the agenda: Counterterror efforts and the security situation in Libya, VOA says. Looming in the background: Cairo’s close ties with Moscow. “We will explain to the Egyptians, as we have to other Arab countries in the region, that getting too close to Russia is not in their best interest,” the news service quotes a US official as saying. Mattis took questions from reporters in Riyadh yesterday, and a Defense Department transcript of remarks by Mattis, KSA Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman and US Deputy National Security Advisor Dina Powell is here.

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is due in Sudan today for a meeting of the joint Sudanese-Egyptian consultative committee. A visit previously scheduled for earlier this month was postponed.

Nobody’s singing a swan song for active EM fund managers — yet — but two US giantssee a shakeout happening in the US asset management industry. Both BlackRock and Fidelity see that the rise of passive investing will drive consolidation in the industry. Noting a space of recent mergers, the Financial Times writes that “Lower-margin players in more exposed areas such as mainstream equities are likely to be vulnerable to take over attempts.” The paper quotes the head of Fidelity’s USD 2.1 tn asset management division as saying, “The trend is pretty clear. Margins will continue to come under pressure. The industry is going to look very different in five years. There will be fewer and larger managers.” BlackRock boss Larry Fink, recently in the headlines for axing portfolio managers and hiring robots, tells Reuters that “‘I believe you’re going to see a consolidation in our industry,’ … citing previous waves in industries such as banking.”